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Conclusion: Following our US economist’s call for a
mild ‘08 recession, and seemingly aggressive tightening
efforts by the PBoC, we are now ruling out a bubble
scenario for Chinese equities, although we remain
bullish on the Hong Kong listed offshore China equities
in 2008. We think Corporate China can handle the three
challenges including: 1) a US recession and export
slowdown; 2) domestic asset price deflation; 3)
monetary tightening and austerity controls, well through
2008. 24% 2008 MSCI China EPS growth (Morgan
Stanley analysts’ forecast) is our base case of scenarios
(60%), which implies 15% market upside, assuming FY1
market P/E multiples above 20x hold (23x currently) and
8% Rmb appreciation. Our MSCI China index target is
thus 105.2.
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