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花旗分析报告，分析对象是巴菲特的博克希尔.哈撒韦。2008年1月9日，共73页
Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa)
Correction: Recent Rally Puts Investing in Buffett Out of Reach
for Now
Correction — We have made changes from our previous note which include the
correct database driven market cap calculation, chart correction (Figure 8,
reference to a stock owned) and updated article citation.
Initiating with a Hold — We are initiating coverage with a Hold/Low (2L) rating
and a price target of $147,000. While we expect EPS of $10,500 in 2008,
exceeding these numbers is unlikely to play a major role in valuation.
Investors Play Defense — Sentiment appears to have driven shares up 28%
since early-August until the end of 2007, compared with the S&P 500's flat
performance over the same period. In the face of a U.S. mortgage crisis, we
believe Berkshire's lack of credit exposure, global revenue positioning, bearish
dollar stance and war chest of cash have drawn investors into the stock.
The Buffett Magic — While Mr. Buffett's investing track record is justifiably
legendary, continued Fed rate cuts could possibly entice the appetites of
Berkshire's buyout rivals — as well as private equity — back into the buyout
limelight, causing Berkshire to continue to sit on cash. Moreover, investors may
become less confident if Mr. Buffett is not at the investment helm.
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