发帖
雷达卡
Asia Pacific Economics January 13, 2014.pdf
(673.71 KB, 需要: 1000 个论坛币)
Summary
Macro outlook for AXJ remains challenging: We believe that the macro outlook for the AXJ region remains challenging, as the three drivers to real GDP growth – demographics, leverage and productivity – are now less favourable compared with before. Moreover, while we do expect a cyclical improvement in external demand, due to improving domestic demand in DM, export growth will still likely be structurally weaker, as: 1) the capex-led recovery in the US will bring less positive spillover effects to the region’s exports, and 2) the relatively elevated REER levels and tighter labor markets adding to wage pressures have led to an erosion of the region’s export competitiveness.
From another perspective, the framework to assess the macro and risk asset outlook is the gap between real GDP and real rates. The gap between the two has already narrowed to a decade low, and we expect the gap to narrow slightly more as the year progresses. As discussed earlier, real GDP growth will continue to be constrained, while real rates will continue to face upward pressures from rising US real rates and declining excess saving in AXJ.
Asia is now in an “Adjustment” phase of the Boom-Bust-Adjustment cycle. We believe that AXJ is now in the “Adjustment” phase of the business cycle, where policy makers will have to focus on working off any macro excesses and regaining the focus on productivity growth (for more details on our framework, please see Asia Pacific Economics: Asia Insight: Asia's Boom-Bust-Adjustment Cycles, Dec 5, 2013. In this “Adjustment” phase, the region will remain highly exposed to any potential external or domestic shock, as the relatively elevated macro stability risks will imply much less room for counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies. The duration of this “Adjustment” phase will depend crucially on what policy makers can do to lift productivity from here.
What policy reforms are needed in Emerging Asia? In China, we believe that policy makers will need to engineer a shift in the leverage (from the corporate/LFGV sector to the central government/households) and growth mix (investment to consumption). In India, policy efforts to reduce fiscal deficit and rural wages and comprehensively boost the business environment will be much needed. In Indonesia, policy makers will need to allow for a further adjustment in the real effective exchange rate to allow the non-commodity sector to regain its competitiveness. In Malaysia, efforts to boost the soft infrastructure and the competitiveness of the non- commodity sector will also be needed. In Thailand, we believe that there is a need to allow for depreciation of its real effective exchange rate to regain export competitiveness. We will be closely watching these factors over the course of the year to assess the macro outlook for these economies
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
