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http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?tp=&arnumber=1627199&isnumber=34152 TITLE: An application to set up a model to forecast electric rate adjusted through cos/spl Phi/ using regressive analysis Fang Cao   Lizi Zhang   Lab. of Power Syst. Protection & Dynamic Dynamic Security Monitoring & Control, North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China; This paper appears in: Power Engineering Conference, 2005. IPEC 2005. The 7th International Publication Date: Nov. 29 2005-Dec. 2 2005 On page(s): 1-223 Location: Singapore, ISBN: 981-05-5702-7 INSPEC Accession Number: 9055206 Digital Object Identifier: 10.1109/IPEC.2005.206910 Posted online: 2006-05-08 09:29:42.0

Abstract A 2-step tariff mechanism is adopted in Chinese electric power market. That means the payment of the customers is calculated through the cos/spl Phi/ of a net node. So the value of cos/spl Phi/ is used to adjust the rate of consumer's tariff. But because of the policy, the value of the adjusted rate can't be calculated accurately in advance. Some problems always lie in how to choose a proper model to make sure the adjusted value of electric rate when to analyze the economic benefit. The paper firstly points out the disadvantage of traditional method on forecasting the adjusted rate through cos/spl Phi/. Then it presents a new method to establish the forecast model based on regressive analysis. The model proposed here was applied in a distribution company and given the reasonable result. The paper describes the applicability of the proposed model and gives some explanation for application.

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关键词：disadvantage distribution Subscribers Application Traditional adjusted electric through Power

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