发帖
雷达卡
May 7, 2014
Greater China
Economics
Issues in Focus
35P
Stronger growth headwinds warrant more policy
easing: China 1Q14 GDP growth fell to +7.4%YoY,
from +7.7% YoY in 4Q13, slightly higher than consens
forecast of +7.3% (MS: 7.5%). According to the NBS,
the sequential GDP growth decelerated to +5.7% QoQ
SAAR in 1Q14 from +7.0% QoQ SAAR in 4Q13. We
believe the data in aggregate suggested headwinds o
growth have strengthened, given: i) the significant
deceleration in GDP sequential growth to sub 6% leve
and ii) monthly average data in investment and IP
implying growth may be possibly weaker than GDP da
suggested (while we cannot rule it out that growth has
rebalanced towards consumption and the tertiary secto
the discrepancy is still concerning).
Strong Exports Growth to DM Helped Lift Overall
Export Growth: Hong Kong's exports growth moved
back into the positive territory in Mar-14, registering a
growth rate of 3.4%. This was much better than
consensus expectations which were expecting export
growth to decline by 0.7%. Exports to DM rebounded,
while exports to China weakened. Exports to the US
and Germany grew by 11.1% and 13.8% YoY,
respectively. In contrast, exports to China declined by
2.3% YoY in Mar-14.
1Q GDP Driven by Consumption and Exports;
Investments Disappoint: Taiwan's real GDP increased
3.04% YoY in 1Q (vs. 2.95% in 4Q13), in line with our
and consensus forecasts of 3.0%. On a seasonally
adjusted sequential basis (saar), Taiwan's GDP
expanded 1.1% QoQ in 1Q, down from the growth of
7.3% QoQ in 4Q13. The slower QoQ growth suggests to
us that Taiwan's recovery momentum eased somewhat
at the start of this year. The slowdown mainly came from
lower investment growth in 1Q. On the other hand,
private consumption continued to show robust growth in
1Q. Net exports contributed positively to growth, due to
relatively faster export recovery than import recovery in
1Q.
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