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Title:
Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models(动态利率期限结构模型) with Unspanned Macro Risks
Author:
Joslin,the University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business;
Priebsch,the Federal Reserve Board;
Singleton,Stanford University, Graduate School of Business and NBER.
Abstract:
This paper quantifies how variation in economic activity and inflation in the United States influences the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in Treasury markets(国债市场). We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by output and inflation risks that are unspanned by (imperfectly correlated with) information about the shape of the yield curve. Our model reveals that, between 1985 and 2007, these risks accounted for a large portion of the variation in forward terms premiums, and there was pronounced cyclical variation in the market prices of level and slope risks.
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