<p>Cosmetics, Household &amp;<br/>Personal Products<br/>Direct Selling in China<br/>If Regulations Ease, Opportunity Expands A Local Perspective<br/>&#1048708; COMPREHENSIVE, VALUE-ADDED LOOK AT THE CHINESE DIRECT SELLING<br/>INDUSTRY. Since China is many global direct sellers’ most important growth<br/>market, this well-timed report examines the industry’s history, evolution, and<br/>outlook in that nation. We believe the perspective afforded by one of our team<br/>members, a Chinese citizen with years of consumer products experience in that<br/>country, adds value to our research of this topic ─ which, in any event, is based<br/>on in-market conversations and thus is entirely proprietary.<br/>&#1048708; EXPECT $30 BILLION DIRECT SALES MARKET IN CHINA WITHIN FIVE YEARS.<br/>That estimate, which assumes the industry grows in the low double digits through<br/>2012, may in fact be conservative, given the fast-rising Chinese economy and<br/>recent positive changes in direct selling regulation. Even at $30 billion, we<br/>envision room for outstanding growth for the major industry players ─ for<br/>instance, Avon (rated Peer Perform), which is off to a flying start in China, could<br/>have a $750 million market in that nation in five years.<br/>&#1048708; WILL THE NEW REGULATIONS BE ENFORCED? The industry’s future will<br/>depend on whether the Chinese government strictly enforces its regulation. If it<br/>does, Avon should benefit significantly. However, we expect more flexible<br/>enforcement as the industry evolves, which ─ since only a single-level<br/>compensation scheme is currently allowed in China ─ could be a major advantage<br/>for companies that have adopted a multi-level compensation business model.</p><p>Table of Contents Page<br/>Executive Summary...................................................................................................................................................5<br/>History and Evolution of Direct Selling in China ......................................................................................................6<br/>Assessing the Size of China’s Direct Selling Industry .............................................................................................10<br/>Key Issues for the Industry’s Evolution ...................................................................................................................16<br/>Emerging Trends in the China Direct Selling Industry ............................................................................................19<br/>Our Conclusions About China’s Direct Selling Industry .........................................................................................21<br/>Can Avon, Nu Skin, Amway, Mary Kay, and Herbalife All Be Winners in China? ...............................................23<br/>Avon: Off to a Promising Start. Will Good Behavior Pay Off? .......................................................................24<br/>Nu Skin: Once It Gets Going, Poised for Success in China...............................................................................37<br/>Amway: Holding On........................................................................................................................................42<br/>Herbalife: From $1 Million to $32 Million in Two Years .................................................................................48<br/>Mary Kay: As Good or Better than Avon China?.............................................................................................49<br/>Appendix .................................................................................................................................................................53</p><p></p><p>
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