【SWS Research】汽车行业深度剖析，英文

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【SWS Research】汽车行业：驱动力回归基本面.PDF.PDF (852.07 KB, 需要: 3 个论坛币)

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Investment highlights：
Mixed interim results. In the auto industry chain, five companies (total of eight) under
our coverage will likely report a good performance in 1H14. Of which, three will report
profit growth of over 50% YoY. While the other three companies will likely report a YoY
decline. We believe the high net profit growth performances of Autohome (ATHM:US)
and Bitauto (BITA:US) were primarily due to the increasing popularity of China’s vertical
web portals. In terms of sales growth, Brilliance China (1114:HK) (+32% YoY) and
Guangzhou Auto (2238:HK) (+19% YoY) saw increased profits in 1H14; while, Geely
Auto (175:HK) (‐29% YoY) and Great Wall Motor (2333:HK) (‐6% YoY) experienced a
weak performance on the back of declining sales during the same period.
Out top pick: Guangzhou Auto. Guangzhou Auto’s local brand, Trumpchi GS5, will
generate profit on the back of outperforming sales (+25.1% YoY) in 1H14, while growth
will continue to be supported by double capacity (200k units) during 2H14. Sales of GACMitsubishi
soared to 29.5k units (+110.5% YoY) in 1H14. Based on expanding capacity,
we expect GAC‐Mitsubishi to see rising profits in 2H14. The sales growth rates of GACHonda
(+2.5% YoY) and GAC‐Toyota (+26.6% YoY).
Xinchen began to deliver engines to Brilliance BMW in July 2014. The partnership
with BMW is likely to provide substantial profit growth for Xinchen. However, we believe
the assembly business has scope for expansion to include sub‐assembly lines, the
production of selected components and new engine production deals with Brilliance.
Xinchen’s traditional gasoline products delivered c.128k units (90%‐plus of the total) in
1H14 (‐4.3% YoY). The share drive correction was therefore due to weak interim results
that will provide a good entry point for investors.
Vertical web portal preference, Bitauto. With Bitauto’s traditional business maturing,
we believe that the company’s e‐commerce strategy will boost the markets sentiment on
its growth prospects. Meanwhile, Bitauto’s platforms will enable dealers to distinguish
the source of the leads. This will enable Bitauto to receive commission (c.Rmb500‐2,000)
from the transactions of a particular lead. Leveraging its existing dealer coverage, the
average concurrent users (ACU) in its website, huimaiche.com, rose from c.1,100
persons/d in mid‐May to c.15,000 persons/d to date. We maintain our BUY rating.

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