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William A. Ward
Professor of Applied Economics and Statistics
&
Director of the Center for International Trade
Clemson University
Clemson University Center for International Trade Working Paper 052507
(August 4, 2005)
Executive Summary
Summary of Section I Results: Manufacturing productivity growth from 1990 to 2004
should have taken away 7.5 million of the 17.7 million manufacturing jobs that existed in
the US in 1990, while GDP growth should have added back (at the new productivity
levels of 2004) 5.7 million manufacturing jobs—for a net loss of 1.8 million. In fact, the
US economy lost 3.3 million manufacturing jobs during that period, implying that
structural and competitive factors shifted 1.5 million of the GDP-growth-implied jobs
from the manufacturing sector to other sectors of the US economy. I applied this same
“Job Shift Analysis” to the sub-periods 1990-1995, 1995-2000, and 2000-2004 and
found striking differences between those intervals in terms of manufacturing employment
changes (and job quality changes—Section II). For one thing, more than 80% of the
manufacturing job losses by the US economy since 1990 occurred after 2000. I find that
100% of the (3.0 million) manufacturing jobs lost since 2000 were lost to manufacturing
productivity growth and that 100% of the (1.8 million) jobs that should have been added
back by GDP growth in the US after 2000 were shifted to other sectors of the US
economy than manufacturingManufacturing Productivity and the Shifting US,
.
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