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China’s A-share markets:
Secular bull market resumes
We think China’s A-share markets remain in a
secular bull market (albeit with extreme volatility):
These markets have been delivering superior long-run
returns among major equity markets since the
beginning of 2000. Shenzhen A and Shanghai A have
total US$ return CAGRs of ~12% and ~8% respectively,
outperforming S&P 500, MSCI Europe, Topix and Hang
Seng. Total market cap of China’s A-share markets has
now reached ~US$5trn with a free float of ~US$1.6trn.
China’s A-share markets have also outperformed
all other investment asset classes in China: CNY
YTD returns are 16% and 8% (Shenzhen and Shanghai
A indices, respectively). Monthly new account openings
nearly tripled between May and September. The
combined daily trading turnover of the Shanghai and
Shenzhen Stock Exchanges reached an all-time high of
~US$59bn inSeptember.
How sustainable is the current rally? A number of
positive catalysts are likely to add further support:
1) “Success breeds success” – Domestic investors
are likely to be attracted to the equity market
further, since both the housing market and trust
products (two asset classes that used to deliver
high returns) face their own challenges (sluggish
sales and high inventory for housing, tightening
regulatory environment for trust products).
2) The Chinese government’s efforts to boost A
shares – through open messages and loosening
on account openings and margin funding.
3) Better market access for foreign investors –
through MMA and expansion of QFII and RQFII.
Our biggest concern remains hard landing risk:
September and October data are important for
reflecting how effective the government’s easing
measures have been after certain signs of a slowdown
in economic activity since July. Our base case remains
that China will ultimately be successful transitioning into
a more consumption/services-driven growth model.
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