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Executive Summary
Indian Newspaper Publishing - Standing Tall
We believe the Indian Print Media sector offers an excellent opportunity for investors to cash in on
the strong economic growth and emerging consumerism theme in India. Contrary to popular belief
and in defiance of global trends, Newspaper Publishing in India still stands tall beating Television
in terms of advertising growth. Going ahead, the Rs130bn Indian Newspaper Publishing industry
is expected to register a 13.9% CAGR in revenues during CY2007-11 largely driven by advertising
revenue. While advertising revenue is basically related to strong economic growth in the country,
we believe Newspaper Publishing in India is set to grow owing to structural growth drivers like
rising penetration, higher literacy levels and improving affordability of the medium.
Newsprint concerns discounted
Rising newsprint prices has emerged as the key concern for Print Media companies in India.
Capacity rationalisation in North American markets, lower supplies from China and rising crude oil
prices has led to this sharp hike. However, we believe the impact of rising newsprint prices on
Print Media companies' profitability has already been discounted in the market as reflected in the
sharp fall in the stock prices of Print Media companies by 30-45% during the last three months.
We believe the newsprint prices are likely to stabilise in 2HCY2008 as the supply situation from
China improves post the Olympics in Beijing. For our Print Media universe, we have modeled in an
18% rise in newsprint prices in FY2009E from $600/ton as a base case followed by a 6% jump in
FY2010E.
Premium valuations to sustain
Globally, Print Media companies usually command premium valuations owing to the unique
nature of their business model, which entails high operating leverage and generates strong free
cash flows. This allows Print Media companies to venture into new businesses/ alternative media
platforms and emerge as a complete media house, which further improves their bargaining
power with advertisers and expands their total advertising pie. Beefed up with proper funding
(post opening up of FDI), a buoyant economy and better demographics, we believe the Print
Media companies in India have also embarked on a similar trend. This new era has witnessed
Print Media breaking its shackles from its traditional strongholds to expand into new geographies,
launching new editions and even venturing beyond Print. We believe such new initiatives will not
only help the companies maximise use of their infrastructure and brands, it will also act as a
stepping stone to unlock shareholder value once the ventures attain significant size.
Angel Print Media Top Picks - Set to outpace industry growth
We Initiate Coverage on the Print Media sector in India with a positive outlook for our universe of
stocks, which includes three companies - Jagran Prakashan (JPL), HT Media (HTML) and Deccan
Chronicle Holdings (DCHL). We expect our Print Media universe to register a robust 21% and
30.3% CAGR in Net Sales and Profits during FY2007-10 respectively, outpacing industry growth.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 2
India Media & Entertainment Industry 4
Advertising to grow at steady pace 5
Buoyant Economy - the platform for steady advertising growth 5
Low Ad Spend to GDP - indicates huge untapped potential 6
Liberal government regulations - the thrust M&E Industry needed 6
Convergence - The new mantra 7
Print Media 9
Newspaper Publishing - Standing tall in India 9
Print scores over Television due to inherent advantages 10
India to outpace Global newspaper industry growth 10
Structural factors to drive Print Media growth in India 11
Revenue Model skewed towards advertising 11
Advertising to remain the key growth driver 13
The Big Divide - English v/s Regional 14
Breaking Barriers 17
Attracting Big Investments 18
Expanding Reach 18
Convergence - Playing its part in Print Media 19
Key Concerns 21
Rising Newsprint Prices 21
Outlook and Valuation 25
Companies 29
Jagran Prakashan 30
HT Media 48
Deccan Chronicle 68
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