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英文文献：The Role of Human Development on Deforestation in Africa: A Modelling-Based Approach-人类发展对非洲森林砍伐的作用:以模式为基础的方法
英文文献作者：Asongu Simplice,Jingwa Brian
英文文献摘要：
The rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990-2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. This implies a total of 3.42% of forest was lost in the 18 year period. This is more in line with estimates obtained by the Food and Agricultural Organization (0.56% between1990-2000 and 0.49% between 2000-2010). Human development which involves life expectancy, education and income is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while cutting down trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalized linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, we were able to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends. In many countries, progress has been made in reforestation, forest protection and conservation. However, if indiscriminate cutting down of trees is not checked, many countries will lose most or all of their forests by 2030.
非洲的森林砍伐率不仅对非洲的未来，而且对世界都是极为重要的问题。这项研究使用国家一级的数据来模拟35个非洲国家18年期间(1990-2007年)森林地区的变化，并调查人类发展的重要发展指标所起的作用。结果表明，1990年至2007年，森林净损失为0.19%。这意味着在这18年期间总共损失了3.42%的森林。这更符合粮食及农业组织的估计(1990-2000年为0.56%，2000-2010年为0.49%)。研究发现，包括预期寿命、教育和收入在内的人类发展对森林的生长和保护有积极影响，而砍伐树木作为木材燃料是滥伐森林的一个重要原因。利用广义线性混合模型和广义估计方程，我们能够计算出2010年、2020年和2030年森林面积的预期估计数，假设没有采取任何措施来改变观察到的趋势。许多国家在重新造林、森林保护和养护方面取得了进展。然而，如果不制止滥砍滥伐，到2030年，许多国家将失去大部分甚至全部森林。
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