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Commodity As An Asset Class: Like the Sirens in Greek mythology, commodities have been singing an alluring melody for global investors as financial market dislocation has enveloped more traditional asset classes. Instead of destruction, we anticipate another year of strong commodity price gains in 2008, most notably in the agricultural sector.
Oil: We believe the run-up in oil prices during the fourth quarter of 2007 goes beyond what can be explained by the decline in the US dollar and the level of global growth. We see prices averaging USD85/bbl this year.
Natural Gas: We expect prices will eventually benefit from inadequate capacity additions from proposed coal projects and wind power, which are required to meet electricity generation needs.
Precious Metals: The risk of further dollar weakness has not been exhausted, in our view. Consequently we see the gold price overshooting this year and expect fundamentals in platinum will remain tight into 2009.
Industrial Metals: We expect this sector to recover in 2008 as US recession risk fades, the Fed stops easing, equity markets stabilise and Chinese demand returns. We are particularly constructive towards aluminium and copper.
Agriculture: Global land and water constraints as well as the need to feed people, cattle and cars are expected to deliver new price highs this year We favour corn, cotton and soybeans.
Commodities: Siren Or Beacon?
Commodity Views ..................................... 2
#1 Executive Summary .............................. 3
#2 Trade Recommendations...................... 6
#3 Trade Review ........................................ 7
#4 Commodity Indices............................... 9
#5 Global Macro....................................... 13
#6 Commodity Cycles.............................. 16
#7 Crude Oil & US Natural Gas................ 17
#8 Markets vs. Analysts........................... 22
#9 US Power............................................ 23
#10 Commodity Term Structures ............ 24
#11 Commodity Volatility......................... 33
#12 Skew View & Spike Risk ................... 37
#13 Precious Metals ................................ 42
#14 PGMs................................................ 47
#15 Industrial Metals ............................... 49
#16 Agriculture ....................................... 61
#17 Emissions.......................................... 66
#18 US Carbon Trading............................ 71
#19 Uranium ............................................ 73
#20 Bulk Commodities............................. 77
Commodities Chartbook ......................... 86
Price Forecasts ........................................ 95
特别介绍中国商品市场的前景及状况
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-6-27 11:02:42编辑过]
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