[转帖]China Development Bank Interested in Dresdner Bank

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<p>China Development Bank is competing with Commerzbank AG to buy Allianz SE's Dresdner Bank, Germany's third-largest lender by assets, three people familiar with the matter said. </p><p>China Development Bank, which funds the nation's public works projects, has conducted due diligence on Dresdner Bank in Frankfurt, said the people, who declined to be identified because they aren't permitted to publicly discuss the matter. </p><p>Dresdner Bank may fetch as much as 9 billion euros ($14 billion) according to Merck Finck & Co., making it the biggest- ever overseas acquisition by a Chinese company. Spain's Banco Santander SA is also interested in Dresdner, for which Allianz paid 23.3 billion euros in 2001, the people said. </p><p>``There is potential for a political backlash'' if Dresdner is sold to a buyer outside of western Europe, said Tony Silverman, an analyst at Standard & Poor's Equity Research in London. ``The price would have to make up for the absence of strategic upside for Allianz in other deals.'' </p><p>Chinese companies and funds spent $19.3 billion buying stakes in Blackstone Group LP, Morgan Stanley, Barclays Plc, Fortis and Johannesburg-based Standard Bank Group Ltd. since May 2007. Those investments are now worth about $7 billion less on paper, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. </p><p>China Development Bank has a $1.7 billion paper loss on its year-old investment in U.K. lender Barclays. </p><p>Dresdner Book Value </p><p>Commerzbank, Germany's second-biggest bank by assets, is the most likely buyer as it's already studied the company's books and held talks with management, the people said. Allianz gained 1.5 percent in Frankfurt trading at 10:10 a.m. </p><p>Dresdner Bank spokesman Martin Halusa declined to comment. China Development Bank spokesman Xu Fei said he wasn't immediately able to comment. Commerzbank spokesman Maximilian Bicker declined to comment, as did a Banco Santander spokesperson. </p><p>Dresdner would give a buyer 500 billion euros of assets, more than 1,000 branches and 6.3 million retail clients. Allianz wants to sell the securities unit Dresdner Kleinwort, which has contributed to more than 2.5 billion euros of subprime-related writedowns in the past year. </p><p>The German bank may be worth 8 billion to 9 billion euros, said Konrad Becker, a Munich-based analyst at Merck Finck. Allianz Chief Financial Officer Helmut Perlet in May estimated Dresdner Bank's book value at about 12 billion euros. <br/></p>

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关键词：Development Interested Dresdner interest Develop identified conducted familiar discuss because

Barclays Losses

China Development was initially interested in Dresdner's securities unit and is now looking at the entire bank, including the retail business, after valuations fell, the people said.

The Chinese bank paid $3.04 billion for about 3 percent of Barclays, the U.K.'s third-biggest lender, in July 2007. The investment was made to provide backing for Barclays' unsuccessful bid to acquire ABN Amro Holding NV. Since then, Barclays stock has tumbled 53 percent.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.'s $5.6 billion purchase of a stake in Standard Bank was the nation's biggest overseas acquisition to date.

China Development President Chen Yuan, 63, is seeking expertise in areas such as investment banking as he shifts focus away from lending for state projects. The bank received $20 billion in December from the government to help it catch up with rivals such as ICBC, the world's largest bank by market value.

Slow-Growth Bank

``It makes sense for China Development to continue looking overseas as it's trying to shift away from being a pure policy bank,'' said Jimmy Leung, financial services partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers in Shanghai. ``They'd still be keen if it's a bargain sale.''

China Development's profit rose 6.9 percent in 2007, about a 10th of the average pace among the nation's publicly traded lenders. The bank was forced to slow loan growth as China's government moved to curb inflation.

Even so, Standard & Poor's raised its long-term credit rating on China Development to A+ from A on July 31, following an upgrade of China's sovereign debt.

Allianz, Europe's biggest insurer, has dropped about 63 percent in Frankfurt trading since the Dresdner acquisition was announced on April 1, 2001, more than the 51 percent drop in the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index.

Dresdner Bank Woes

Dresdner Bank posted a 53 percent decline in net income last year, to 410 million euros. The investment bank, which is headed by Stefan Jentzsch, 47, and employs about 6,000 people, posted a 759 million-euro pretax loss in 2007 after writedowns. The unit was created from the merger of Dresdner Kleinwort and Bruce Wasserstein's Wasserstein Perella & Co.

Allianz Chief Executive Officer Michael Diekmann, 53, in May said talks are taking place about a possible sale or merger of the bank. Dresdner plans to separate its consumer and investment banking units by the end of the month to give it more options in finding partners, the insurer has said. Allianz could sell the securities unit separately, according to Silverman at S&P.

``You would have much lower synergies if you are a foreign bank looking at Dresdner, particularly in the retail bank,'' said Matthew Clark, a London-based analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. ``If a foreign company is prepared to pay a higher price it may be hard to block.''

因为此前投资西方屡屡受挫而备受打击，但中国国家开发银行(China Development Bank)似乎仍在寻觅投资机会。

据知情人士透露，大约两、三个月前，国家开发银行与德国安联保险公司(Allianz SE)就收购后者旗下子公司德累斯顿银行(Dresdner Bank)进行了初步磋商。国家开发银行是中国一家政策性银行，主要为政府目标与项目提供资金。

但几位人士指出，由于其他欧洲投资者也对德累斯顿垂涎欲滴，同时中国投资者或将面临政治阻力，因此这场谈判不太可能有结果。

安联保险和德累斯顿银行的发言人均拒绝对此置评。记者未能联系到国家开发银行发言人。彭博资讯(Bloomberg News)周一晚间报导了双方谈判的消息。

德累斯顿银行是安联保险旗下零售与投资银行部门，安联保险希望在8月底之前完成分拆工作。投行人士正在等待安联保险定于8月7日公布的收益，希望藉此评估德累斯顿银行在潜在交易中的价值。知情人士表示，考虑到目前的市场状况，该行的估值差别巨大，从75亿欧元左右（117亿美元）到150亿欧元不等。另一位人士补充称，国开行的出价可能不足以拿下德累斯顿银行。

为实现收入多元化，中国金融机构一直在寻找入股海外同行的机会。同时，他们还希望能借此深入了解更成熟的银行运作模式。

坐拥2,000亿美元的中国主权财富基金--中国投资有限责任公司(China Investment Corp.)在私人资本运营公司百仕通集团(Blackstone Group)首次公开募股(IPO)时投资了大约30亿美元。中投公司还向摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)投资了50亿美元。

在这方面，国家开发银行是另一个先行者。该行去年斥资15亿英镑(29.4亿美元)收购了巴克莱集团(Barclays PLC)大约3.1%的股份，以协助巴克莱竞购荷兰银行控股公司(ABN AMRO Holding)。但巴克莱最终未能如愿。

然而，随着巴克莱因次级抵押贷款相关损失遭受重创，国开行对巴克莱的投资价值也缩水近半。不过，今年6月巴克莱向股东筹资时，国开行承诺投资至多1.36亿英镑，以维持持股比例。

受巴克莱投资损失影响，中国高层领导今年1月驳回了国家开发银行收购花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)大约20亿美元股份的计划。这一决定使得国开行收购海外资产的可靠性大打折扣。

知情人士此前透露，安联保险正在与诸多潜在收购方接触，商议出售德累斯顿银行的事宜。一位知情人士称，德国商业银行(Commerzbank AG)等银行可能有意部分或全部收购德累斯顿银行。另一位人士表示，德国商业银行目前暂时领先，但短期内料难达成协议。德国商业银行一位发言人拒绝对此发表评论。

德国政府对外资收购本土公司（尤其是国营机构）的立场也使得中国资本收购德累斯顿银行的交易难以成功。国开行是一家国有银行，去年12月从中投公司获得了200亿美元注资。

安联保险于2001年收购德累斯顿银行，后者拥有安联保险绝大部分银行业务。今年第一季度德累斯顿银行净亏损5.13亿欧元，上年同期实现利润6.12亿欧元。

德国最大工会Ver.di 的箴言是“团结就是力量”。德国安联保险集团(Allianz)对此不敢苟同。当这家德国金融服务集团在8月7日公布上半年业绩时，预计会谨慎讨论出售其零售和投资银行子公司德累斯顿银行(Dresdner Bank)一事。近日有报道称，为大坝、机场和桥梁建设提供融资的中国国有机构——国家开发银行(CDB)正考虑竞标。乍一看，这看上去像是新闻淡季的无聊报道：今年4月的一则类似报道称，俄罗斯的Sberban银行将以现金收购德累斯顿银行的投资银行子公司，如今这则报道已销声匿迹。

德国安联打破全金融(allfinanz)模式的承诺毫不动摇。到8月底，该公司将正式把投资银行业务与零售及小企业业务分离，从而为出售其中一块业务，或在理想情况下将两块业务全部出售铺平道路。在安联2001年收购德累斯顿银行时所承诺的保险和银行业务之间的“交叉销售”(cross-selling)，似乎永远不会实现。即便合并取得的弱小的协同优势在一夜之间扩大一倍，它们也仅会将集团收益提高2%至4%。

同时，其它次要情节，例如安联零售子公司与德国邮政银行(Postbank)合并或者与英国劳埃德银行(Lloyds TSB)进行复杂的资产互换，似乎尚未展开。从理论上来说，单独出售颇具吸引力，可以将总售价最大化。但把零售银行分离出来却让人食欲全无：安联零售业务完全依赖存款，是2006年大部分税前利润和2007年全部税前利润的功臣。

从账面上来看，德国商业银行(Commerzbank)仍然是德累斯顿银行合理的收购者。但在Ver.di准备针对德国所有大型零售银行组织罢工之际，这次合并可能会让很多人失业。中国国家开发银行有“前科”可鉴：一年前，该银行以24亿英镑的价格购入巴克莱(Barclays)部分股权并获得一个董事会席位。一家中国公司收购德累斯顿银行，这对于双方都具有文化革命性，将重新定义全球银行业。这仍是一个遥远的前景。但它是衡量市场变化到何种程度的一个指标，投资者没有彻底不理会。

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