Productivity Effectiveness with which factors of production are converted into output. Taken together, do all the factors of production explain all of the variation among countries? Countries differ in their output not only because they accumulate different quantities of production factors, but also because they vary in the effectiveness with which they combine these factors of production to produce output – that is, in their productivity. Think about some examples in real life.
八、因果推理法常用句型 1.Because/Since we read the book, we have learned a lot. 2.If we read the book, we would learn a lot. 3.We read the book; as a result / therefore / thus / hence / consequently / for this reason / because of this, we've learned a lot. 4.As a result of /Because of/Due to/Owing to reading the book, we've learned a lot. 由于阅读这本书，我们已经学到了很多。 5.The cause of/reason for/overweight is eating too much. 6.Overweight is caused by/due to/because of eating too much. 7.The effect/consequence/result of eating too much is overweight. 8.Eating too much causes/results in/leads to overweight. 吃太多导致超重。
五、常用于引言段的句型 1.Some people think that … 有些人认为… To be frank, I can not agree with their opinion for the reasons below. 坦率地说，我不能同意他们的意见，理由如下。 2.For years, … has been seen as …， but things are quite different now. 多年来，……一直被视为……，但今天的情况有很大的不同。 3.I believe the title statement is valid because … 我认为这个论点是正确的，因为… 4.I cannot entirely agree with the idea that …我无法完全同意这一观点的… I believe … 5.My argument for this view goes as follows. 我对这个问题的看法如下。 6.Along with the development of …， more and more …随着……的发展，越来越多… 7.There is a long-running debate as to whether …有一个长期运行的辩论，是否… 8.It is commonly/generally/widely/ believed /held/accepted/recognized that …它通常是认为… 9.As far as I am concerned, I completely agree with the former/ the latter. 就我而言，我完全同意前者 / 后者。 10.Before giving my opinion, I think it is essential to look at the argument of both sides. 在给出我的观点之前，我想有必要看看双方的论据。
If you think you are tech savvy all because you know what "LOL" means, let me test your coolness. Any idea what "IWSN" stands for in Internet slang? It's a declarative statement: I want sex now. If it makes you feel any better, I had no clue, and neither did a number of women I asked about it. Acronyms are widely popular across the Internet, especially on social media and texting apps, because, in some cases, they offer a shorthand for communication that is meant to be instant. READ: Chances are, your teen has sexted So "LMK" -- let me know -- and "WYCM" -- will you call me? -- are innocent enough. But the issue, especially for parents, is understanding the slang that could signal some dangerous teen behavior, such as "GNOC,'" which means "get naked on camera." And it certainly helps for a parent to know that "PIR" means parent in room, which could mean the teen wants to have a conversation about things that his or her mom and dad might not approve of. Katie Greer is a national Internet safety expert who has provided Internet and technology safety training to schools, law enforcement agencies and community organizations throughout the country for more than seven years. She says research shows that a majority of teens believe that their parents are starting to keep tabs on their online and social media lives. "With that, acronyms can be used by kids to hide certain parts of their conversations from attentive parents," Greer said. "Acronyms used for this purpose could potentially raise some red flags for parents." READ: 10 signs you might be addicted to your smartphone But parents would drive themselves crazy, she said, if they tried to decode every text, email and post they see their teen sending or receiving. "I've seen some before and it's like 'The Da Vinci Code,' where only the kids hold the true meanings (and most of the time they're fairly innocuous)," she said. Still, if parents come across any acronyms they believe could be problematic, they should talk with their kids about them, said Greer. But how, on earth, is a parent to keep up with all these acronyms, especially since new ones are being introduced every day? "It's a lot to keep track of," Greer said. Parents can always do a Google search if they stumble upon an phrase they aren't familiar with, but the other option is asking their children, since these phrases can have different meanings for different people. "Asking kids not only gives you great information, but it shows that you're paying attention and sparks the conversation around their online behaviors, which is imperative." READ: Teen 'like' and FOMO anxiety Micky Morrison, a mom of two in Islamorada, Florida, says she finds Internet acronyms "baffling, annoying and hilarious at the same time." She's none too pleased that acronyms like "LOL" and "OMG" are being adopted into conversation, and already told her 12-year-old son -- whom she jokingly calls "deprived," since he does not have a phone yet -- that acronym talk is not allowed in her presence. But the issue really came to a head when her son and his adolescent friends got together and were all "ignoring one another with noses in their phones," said Morrison, founder of BabyWeightTV. "I announced my invention of a new acronym: 'PYFPD.' Put your freaking phone down." LOL! But back to the serious issue at hand, below are 28 Internet acronyms, which I learned from Greer and other parents I talked with, as well as from sites such as NoSlang.com and NetLingo.com , and from Cool Mom Tech's 99 acronyms and phrases that every parent should know. After you read this list, you'll likely start looking at your teen's texts in a whole new way. 1. IWS N - I want sex now 2. GNOC - Get naked on camera 3. NIFO C - Naked in front of computer 4. PIR - Parent in room 5 CU46 - See you for sex 6. 53X - Sex 7. 9 - Parent watching 8. 99 - Parent gone 9. 1174 ' - Party meeting place 10. THOT - That hoe over there 11. CID - Acid (the drug) 12. Broken - Hungover from alcohol 13. 420 - Marijuana 14. POS - Parent over shoulder 15. SUGARPIC - Suggestive or erotic photo 16. KOTL - Kiss on the lips 17. (L)MIRL - Let's meet in real life 18. PRON - Porn 19. TDTM - Talk dirty to me 20. 8 - Oral sex 21. CD9 - Parents around/Code 9 22. IPN - I'm posting naked 23. LH6 - Let's have sex 24. WTTP - Want to trade pictures? 25. DOC - Drug of choice 26. TWD - Texting while driving 27. GYPO - Get your pants off 28. KPC - Keeping parents clueless
Central Banks Have Failed Because They Can't Push Wages Higher (待审核) 2014-12-11 11:33 Central Banks Have Failed Because They Can't Push Wages Higher Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/10/2014 10:14 -0500 Abenomics B+ Central Banks China Consumer Prices ETC Free Money Japan Purchasing Power Yen Yuan in Share 20 Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog , You can print all the money you want, but it will never boost wages to keep up with prices. Central banks have been pursuing two goals for the past six years: ignite inflation and an expansion of debt that will supposedly generate "growth." Despite squandering trillions of dollars, yen, yuan and euros, central banks have failed to ignite sustainable inflation or growth. There's nothing mysterious about their failure: you can't get "good" inflation or growth if wages are stagnant or declining. The central banks don't bother to distinguish between "good" and "bad" inflation: any and all inflation is considered not only wonderful but essential to propping up the Ponzi scheme of debt-dependent consumption, a dynamic I described in Central Banks Create Deflation, Not Inflation. "Good" inflation is wages rising faster than prices. When wages rise faster than consumer prices, households have more money to spend on consumption, and it's progressively easier for them to pay down debt and support additional borrowing. "Bad" inflation is prices rising while wages stagnate. In "bad" inflation, prices keep rising as central bank money-printing devalues the currency, but wages don't rise along with prices. As a result, wages decline in real terms, i.e. purchasing power. In Japan, where the central bank and government have struggled for years to generate price inflation as the means to "re-start growth," wages have fallen by 9% in real terms since 1997. ( source: Voodoo Abenomics: Japan's Failed Comeback Plan Foreign Affairs) I explain this in further depth in Inflation Is Not "Growth" (July 23, 2014). These charts reflect the stagnation of American wages and household incomes. source: Rising Wages Where? Real Wages Post First Annual Decline Since 2012 Real household income has declined across the entire income spectrum: Deduct healthcare expenses and debt service, and what's left of wages for the rest of life's expenses is tanking: Courtesy of longtime correspondent B.C.: Meanwhile, the purchasing power of wages is in steady decline: source: What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index (Doug Short) The point is that lowering interest rates to zero and issuing unlimited free money for financiers to generate asset bubbles has had a negative effect on wages and household income. This is not accidental or bad luck-- central bank money-printing and bond-buying have not had any positive effect on wages because they cannot possibly have any positive impact on wages. In effect, central banks have been trying to pound nails with a handsaw: they don't have the tools to counteract the deflationary influences of labor surplus. Wages are stagnating/declining not because money isn't cheap enough or assets aren't high enough; wages are in structural decline due to three factors: 1. Global wage arbitrage: everybody is competing with everyone else globally for work that is tradable or that can be commoditized 2. Costly human labor is increasingly replaceable with software and robotics 3. The rising costs of labor overhead (social welfare taxes, healthcare, etc.) push employers' costs higher even as employees' paychecks stagnate or shrink. These are global factors , affecting employers everywhere from the U.S. to China. No amount of liquidity or free money can reverse these structural trends. Frantic voices can now be heard suggesting central banks issue free money directly to households. Considering central banks have stolen hundreds of billions of dollars in interest from saver-households in the past six years, there is a painful irony in these calls for free money to households , now that free money for financiers has failed so catastrophically. A free money giveaway won't fix anything; all it would do is give households the means to pay down a bit of debt or make interest payments on subprime auto loans for another month or two. Free money giveaways are not a substitute for earned income. Debt jubilees won't work either, as all the debt that proponents want to cancel is an asset to somebody else--and often that "somebody" is a public or private pension fund or another worker's 401K retirement fund. The game has been lost, but central bankers are still on the field, wandering around in disbelief that their unspeakable powers to issue money and credit have failed. You can print all the money you want, but it will never boost wages to keep up with prices. Average: 4.714285 Your rating:None Average:4.7 (14votes)
聪明人的10大特征，你具备了么？ 1. They don't talk as much as you, because they know they got smart by listening. 他们不会说太多，因为他们知道多听才能变聪明。 2. They know lots of things other than what they're specialised in. Theirs is the gift of a broad mind, constantly fed with the stimulant of being interested in what everyone else is doing. 除去专业知识之外，他们知道的很多。他们的天赋就是思维活跃，总是对其他人在做的事情充满好奇和兴趣。 3. They juggle home, work and personal interests with dexterity and never fall back on the tired old refrain about "work life balance". And when they're juggling, they somehow manage to seem 100% engaged with what they're doing, on all fronts simultaneously, even though you know they're taking appropriate steps behind the scenes to make sure their lives are perfectly, serenely balanced. 他们把家庭、工作和个人兴趣完美平衡，从来不会为“平衡工作和生活”这样的事情伤脑筋。当他们玩的时候，似乎会全身心的投入在这件事上面，他们面面俱到，虽然你很清楚，其实背后他们努力的走好每一步来让生活更加完美、更加平衡。 4. They probably do social media. Not always, but probably. It is not only another chance to listen, but one they use to ensure they can feed their brains with things they otherwise wouldn't have come across. 也许他们会涉足社交媒体。不是一贯如此，只是有可能而已。这也是另外一个倾听的机会，但他们往往关注的是那些从没有经历过的事情。 5. Even when things go very badly wrong, they'll be smiling. Smart people never get ruffled because their smart brains present them with alternatives faster than the bad stuff can happen. 即使事情发展很糟糕，他们也会面带微笑。聪明的人永远不会被打倒，他们的大脑永远都会在坏事发生之前，火速想好其他的解决方案。 6. They know they are usually the smartest person in the room, but they don't spend their time dwelling on that. Instead, they take it as a personal challenge to see if they can make everyone else the smartest person in the room too. 他们知道自己是屋子里最聪明的人，但不会花时间去沾沾自喜。相反，他们会把这当做对自己的挑战：看他们是不是能把屋子里的其他人也变得一样的聪明。 7. If they are managers, they will make every effort to get people smarter, more connected and more popular than them in their teams. They're not threatened because they know that smartness is synergistic. They also make sure that their smart people get to look smarter than them for the same reason. 如果他们是经理级别的人物，他们会努力让别人在整个团队中看上去比他们还要聪明、亲密和受欢迎。他们不会感到威胁，因为聪明有相互促进的作用。同理，他们也会确保这些聪明人看起来更聪明。 8. They have hidden skills that never get rolled out until they're needed. They don't have any need to show their full capabilities for reasons of proving they're better than others. 不到万不得已，他们不会展现出自己的所有技能，无需仅仅为了证明自己比别人厉害而去秀自己的能力。 9. They may or may not have expensive educations. You'd never know, just by being with them unless you had their CV in front of you. 他们也许没有受到非常高端的教育，除非看到他们的简历，否则你永远都无从得知。 10. They never, ever, under any circumstances, make you look stupid, even though it would be easy to do so. They've learnt through bitter experience that the only thing that happens when you make someone look bad is you look bad yourself. 在任何情况下，他们绝对绝对不会让你看起来很愚笨，哪怕这是件轻而易举的事情。因为从过去的教训中他们学到的是，让别人出丑的唯一结果就是自己也出丑。 Now you should know who the smart people are. If you want to be the smart one, let me give you this extra advice from Steve Jobs "Stay hungry. Stay foolish." 现在你应该知道谁才是聪明人了吧。如果你想变得聪明，再送你一句话，就是乔帮主那句经典的名言：“求知若饥，虚心若愚”。
7种方法帮你找到人生真谛！ 1.Be selfish You can’t pinpoint exactly what you want in life if you’re constantly sacrificing your time and dreams for other people. You have to put yourself first. Ask yourself: If you weren’t tied down by your job, family, friends, or anything else, then what would you be doing right now? Always remember that it’s okay to put yourself first, because if you don’t, then no one else will. 自私点 如果你一直是为了别人而牺牲你自己的时间和梦想，那你就不能精确地定位你到底想在生活中得到什么。首先，你得把你自己放在第一位。问问自己：如果你没有被你的职业、家庭、朋友或是其他的事所束缚，那么你现在将在做什么呢?永远要记得这一点，你可以先考虑你自己，因为如果你不这样，那么也不会有其他人把你放在第一位了。 2.Regret nothing Don’t feel bad for being selfish. It’s your life. It’s time for you to live it exactly the way you want to. If you constantly regret things you did or didn’t do in the past, then you won’t be able to move forward. Don’t live in the past. Live in the present...and the future! 别后悔 不要因为自己自私就感到不安，这是你自己的人生。现在就是大好的时光让你去以你希望的方式去生活。如果你总是后悔你以前所做过或没有做过的事情的话，那么你就不能向前进了。不要活在过去;反之，要活在现在，活在将来! 3.Figure out what you need Sometimes it’s hard to figure out what you need. Sit down and think about what you need the most. Is it your family? The freedom to express yourself? Love? Financial security? Something else? If it helps, you can make a list of priorities. Also think about the kind of legacy you want to leave behind. 想想你需要什么 有的时候，去想出你所需要的东西也不是一件容易事儿。坐下来，想想你最需要什么。你的家庭?自由地表达你自己?爱情?经济保障?还是其他的东西?如果它确实有帮助，你可以列一个优先考虑的清单。同样的，你也要想想你想去留下的遗产。 4.Determine what really bothers you You can soar only by pushing back against something you don’t want. Figure out what upsets you, and be specific about it. Don’t just say that you hate your office job. Pinpoint exactly why you hate it. Could it be your micromanaging boss? Your workload? Your meaningless job title? Or all of the above? What bothers you, and how can you fix it? How much do you want to fix it? 确定那些烦你的东西 只有在推走那些你不想要的东西后，你才能高飞。想想有什么事物在困扰着你，一定要想具体点。不要单纯地说你讨厌你的办公室工作。准确地讲讲你为什么讨厌它。是因为你管得太细太严的上司?你的工作量?你那没有意义的职称?还是以上的全部?到底是什么在困扰着你?你将会怎样去解决它们?你想解决多少? 5.Determine what makes you truly happy There’s no waste to life if you’re happy living it. Your happiness is the root of your desires. So take a few moments and really think about what makes you happy. Is it traveling? Being around children? Owning a successful business? Your significant other? Financial freedom? Once you pinpoint the one thing that makes you happy the most, you’ll have a pretty clear idea of what you should strive for in your life. 决定那些让你开心的事 如果你快乐地过着生活，你的生命就没有浪费掉。你的快乐是你的欲望之源。所以，不妨花上一小会儿的时间，仔细想想，是什么让你幸福开心?是你有意义的另一半?是你经济上的自由?一旦你定位好了那件让你最开心的事，你就可以开始仔细想想，你应该为你的生命争取点什么? 6.Let people around you know what you’re trying to achieve Don’t keep your goals and desires to yourself. Voice it all out! If you tell people what you’re trying to accomplish, they will most likely support you and give you new ideas. Sometimes mother does know best! 让你身边的人知道你的努力方向 不要只把你的目标和愿望藏在心里。大声说出来!如果你告诉了人们你想要完成的东西，他们将很可能支持你，并且给你新的想法。有时候妈妈知道的最多! 7.Stay positive Life doesn’t always go how you want it. Don’t feel dismay as your plans stray. Take control. Instead of freaking out, try your best to roll with the changes. You will get there someday. You’re just taking a little detour. Sometimes a positive attitude is all you need to keep going. 积极向上 生活不总是按照你所希望的方向走。当你的计划偏离现实时，千万不要灰心。控制好自己。你要做的是尽一切努力去对付这些改变，而不是异想天开。你总有一天将会到达你梦想的彼岸的。你只要稍微绕绕道就行了。有时候，你所需要的坚持下去的全部，就是一个积极的心态!
Because Of The Fed "Mortgage Market Liquidity Is As Bad As When Bear Stearns Failed" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2013 18:22 -0500 Bear Stearns Bond Moral Hazard REITs Russell 2000 in Share 0 Remember the main reason why the Fed should have tapered, namely the illiquidity in the bond market it is creating with its feverish pace of collateral extraction, and conversion of quality collateral into 500x fwd P/E dot com dot two stocks? Here to put it all in context is Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann: "Through its QE policy, the Fed buys $3 of mortgages for every $1 of origination. The consequence is that secondary mortgage market liquidity has been decimated: it is as bad as when Bear Stearns failed ." That's just MBS for now. However, since the Fed has refused and refuses to taper, the same liquidity collapse is coming to Treasury's first, then corporates, then ETFs, then REITs and everything else that the Fed will eventually monetize. Just like the BOJ. As a post script, here are some other observations from Haselmann: Moral Hazard has run wild due to Fed policies . Risk appetite, complacency, and market speculation are at elevated levels. Buyers are scrambling to find assets to buy. As a result, there has been a surge in debt issuance, especially of riskier securities like covenant-lite loans, leveraged loans, and payment-in-kind bonds. The Fed does not have an inflation problem, simply because the $3 trillion+ it has created out of thin air has not been lent into the fractional reserve system. In other words, the velocity of money has been falling. The lack of visibility health care costs, the national fiscal budget, the tax code, regulatory rules and economic growth generally (to name a few), is so widespread that it is impossible to assess the financial logic behind potential capital investment projects. When this uncertainty fades, the velocity of money will rise and the Fed’s ability to control inflation with be challenged accordingly. IPO’s have also come at a fierce pace, taking advantage of investors scrambling to put easy money to work; and who may not be giving enough attention to valuations and the risks involved. Market pundits seem to fuel investor complacency with daily statements that equity P/E’s are historically cheap. However, comparing today’s “new normal” growth trajectory to the high growth period of the 1990’s seems misguided. Furthermore, the current environment is unprecedented and the “E” is a rapidly moving target. The P/E’s of the top 50 Russell 2000 stocks is over 45. The P/E of Linkedin is 755, AOL’s is1278, Chipotle’s is 54. After Twitter’s IPO tomorrow, the stock will trade near 42X revenues (because it has no “E”). Now that is “cheap”- at least relative to where some stocks traded during the dot.com bubble. Average: 4.57143 Your rating: None Average: 4.6 ( 7 votes) !-- - advertisements - .AR_2 .ob_empty {display: none;} .AR_2 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 {float: left;width:50%} .AR_2 li {list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_2 .ob_org_header {color: #000000;text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-src-link {font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 li {padding-bottom: 10px;list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_3 .ob_dual_left, .AR_3 .ob_dual_right {float: left;padding-bottom: 0;padding-left: 2%;padding-top: 0;} .AR_3 .ob_org_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .ob_ads_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} -- - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 4961 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: An Overview Of The Fed's Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility FRBNY President And Former Goldman Partner Dudley Discusses Politicization Of The Fed Guest Post: Goldman's Disinformation Campaign: Drilling Down Into The Documents Guest Post: 2011 - Catch-22 Year In Review Paul Volcker Blasts The Goldman Business Model, Moral Hazard, And Calls For A Return Of Glass-Steagall
UBS On Japan - Are You 'Abe'liever? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/23/2013 13:42 -0400 Apple Bank of Japan Demographics European Union Germany Gross Domestic Product Japan Authored by Duncan Wooldridge via UBS, We totally get why many are excited by the recent cyclical improvement in the Japanese economy. However, just because industrial production is turning up on the back of exports and 1Q GDP grew more than expected doesn’t mean Abeconomics is working . Our colleague, Paul Donovan, correctly pointed out these improvements occurred before the Bank of Japan aggressively started to ramp up base money and there’s been no structural reform to date. Hence, most of the improvement in Japan is probably best described as a standard cyclical improvement in the aftermath of very depressed growth that was also heavily influenced by last year’s downturn in global trade. Recent positive momentum in the economy will likely be sustained for a few more quarters and then of course later this year and early next year consumption should accelerate ahead of a consumption tax hike scheduled for April 2014. So for Abe-believers there will be fuel to support their optimism. However, once you move beyond that and think about what comes afterwards things look more challenging. Can Japan sustainably lift aggregate demand above supply? If that cannot be done then it’s hard to see deflation resolved in a fundamentally positive way. Aggregate demand is heavily influenced by demographics and exports. We published chart 1 recently and it shows that historically the growth rate in Japan’s labour force is an excellent indicator for inflation. That’s because the growth in the labour force affects the level and growth of aggregate wages since total wages equal the number of workers multiplied by wages per worker. That has an affect on consumption and aggregate demand. We did some back of the envelope calculations that suggest even with wages per worker growing by 1% the aggregate wage level might not rise. Meanwhile the consensus is busy writing report after report on what Japan means for Asia. In our view, the more interesting question is what does Asia mean for Japan? Exports will play a vital role in Japan’s efforts to raise aggregate demand above supply. So here’s the problem. We’ve argued consistently that Asia is 5 years into building a credit bubble in an effort to substitute credit-led domestic demand to offset trend weakness in external demand. Our central thesis back in 2009 was that Asia’s willingness to increase leverage would be helpful to growth, asset prices and profits in the region, and by extension intra-Asian trade. But we also argued that with time and higher leverage Asia’s credit-led growth would suffer from diminishing marginal benefits of taking on more debt. That is arguably where much of the region is today and partly explains why Chinese growth is beginning to disappoint expectations. It’s highly likely that Asian economic growth a few years from now will slow significantly as the region’s credit-led growth policies become progressively less effective and produce untoward headwinds for growth. After all, there is always a significant slowdown in growth waiting for you on the other side of any aggressive credit expansion. The problem for Japan is that over 50% of her exports go to Asia. Hence, improving exports are currently helping cyclically but a slowdown in exports – led by weakening Asian demand -- a year or so out is likely. A slowdown in exports to Asia along with a shrinking Japanese consumer base will make it more difficult for Japan to sustainably inflate aggregate demand relative to capacity or supply. This is especially true since capacity is sticky and Japan arguably has too much capacity. A country’s capital stock, along with labour, allows it to provide goods and services to the population; i.e., to meet aggregate demand. Japan has the highest per capita capital stock in the world despite having a shrinking population that is expected to accelerate over the next few decades. The only country in our sample that presently looks similar to Japan is Germany. However, that’s not an apple to apple comparison. First, it’s true that Germany’s capital stock is high, far higher than the US, and its population is shrinking. But in Germany’s case its internal demographics are far less important because it is part of the European Union and importantly labour can move freely between Germany and other EU members. Hence, even though Germany’s population is shrinking its labour force continues to grow unlike Japan , and as we mentioned earlier that affects aggregate demand. Secondly, Germany shares the same currency with its major trade partners, which gives it a competitive advantage in many respects. So we sum it all up like this. There are definitely signs that Japan’s economy are improving cyclically. However, structurally demographics remain a major headwind to raising aggregate demand. We feel many investors have not yet considered what slower growth for Asia will mean for Japan in the medium term. This will make it more difficult to raise aggregate demand above supply since capacity is sticky and Japan already has excess capacity. Average: 4.5 Your rating: None Average: 4.5 ( 2 votes)
Visualizing The Triumph Of Hope Over Reality Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/05/2013 21:05 -0400 Barclays Monetary Policy Reality Renaissance The Matrix The Federal Reserve's extreme monetary policy has done nothing but repress 'safe' assets to the point of making 'risky' assets relatively cheap. This is of course not the case were you to isolate each risky or safe asset and consider its value standalone. Choosing stocks over bonds because "well, what is the alternative?" is akin to the red-pill/blue-pill choice from The Matrix and the reflationary 'normal' that we are supposed to believe in is what 'apparently' justifies a 1.7x rise (12%!) in multiples since QE4EVA was announced. During that same period, consensus earnings expectations have plunged (merely pushed out one more year for the renaissance) and global trade and growth has collapsed. However, while we have shown many divergences from reality in the past, it is the manic/depressive difference between inflation expectations and stock valuations (implicitly supported by reflation) that is the clearest example of the short-term triumph of hope over reality . The plunge in consensus 2013 earnings since August is stunning (as is the resplendent rise in 2014 expectations)... just one more year.... but that didn't matter as P/E ratios surged... on the back of QE4EVA - though 'cyclically' we appear to be nearing the Central Banker limit for short-term impacts... But this time, the inflationary pull of rising P/E ratios simply does not fit with the deflationary 'pricing' the market assigns to forward inflation expectations... In fact, inflation expectations have now faded all the way back to QE3 levels - which can mean only one thing (for fear of the dreaded deflation)... moar QE... Charts: Barclays, Bloomberg
Japan Food Prices Set To Soar As Government Hikes Wholesale Wheat Prices By 10% Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/28/2013 13:30 -0500 Central Banks China Japan Nikkei Reality Trade War Yen If the past three months have been any indication of what Japan has to look forward to from Abenomics, we have a feeling his tenure will be as short, if not shorter, than all of his recent (and numerous, among which he, himself) predecessors. Because while the stock market may have risen in lock step with the plunge in the Yen, what has also soared are costs. And while a very select few benefit from the transitory surge in the Nikkei, the rising costs, i.e., inflation, hit everyone equally. Presenting this visually: the USDJPY and Nikkei correlation, which is 1:1 - this is the good news (for some ) Again, " for some ": And the flip side, as shown before , soaring energy costs - this is the bad news (for all ): As all of this happens, Japanese exports - the sole purported reason for this whole reflationary experiment, as the only way the economy improves is if Japan exports soar and the country returns to a net trade surplus status, just hit a record deficit as of a few days ago: But while the "no free lunch" reality has until now mostly been felt by those who need energy, as shown in " You Wanted Inflation, You Got It: Japanese Gasoline Price Rises To Eight Month High " the inflationary impact on Chinese imports is about to hit everyone like a sledgehammer right where it hurts the most: in the stomach, as the inevitable has finally happened, and the agriculture ministry announced that wholesale wheat prices are set to rise by a near-record 9.7% in April, which will shortly thereafter send regular food prices soaring. From Japan Times : The agriculture ministry said Wednesday it will raise wholesale prices for five imported wheat varieties by an average of 9.7 percent to 54,990 yen per ton in April , the second rise since October, due to higher international market prices and the yen's depreciation . The yen's decline triggered by the policy of the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formed in December has pushed up prices 2 percent, and new prices to become effective in October might get even higher if the Japanese currency remains weak, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said. This is only the second highest increase in wheat prices in history, with the only greater one taking place during the great inflation scare of early 2011, when even China got its brush with the "spring" movement that toppled all North African dictators. The rate of increase in April is the second steepest after the 18 percent notched in April 2011 . What food will be impacted? Pretty much anything with wheat in it. And anyone hoping that the deep-pockted government would sibsidize producers (and thus force the entrance into a trade war), will be disappointed: the prices will all be passed on to the consumer. Of five main wheat varieties, two for use in udon noodles and confection will become 14.2 percent more expensive. The prices for the remaining three varieties used in bread and Chinese noodles will jump 7.5 percent, making it likely that price hikes will be passed onto consumers. Following the ministry's announcement, Nippon Flour Mills Co. said it will consider raising its charges . Other milling firms that produce wheat for industrial and retail use are also expected to follow suit. The government buys all imported wheat, on which Japan relies for 90 percent of its consumption, and revises the prices twice a year -- in April and October. And just like that Japan is about to learn that soaring stock prices always have a trade off, a lesson which even GETCO's SP ramping algos will not be exempt from when the latest bout of soaring food inflation results in central banks scrambling to withdraw liquidity, just as they did in early 2011. The results will naturally be the same. As for how long Abe's government will remain in power after energy and food inflation sweep through the net importing nation, that is anyone's guess. Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 6 votes)
2013 Earnings Are Now Forecast To Be Less Then 2009 Earnings Were Projected To Be In 2007 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2013 12:51 -0500 Ben Bernanke Bob Pisani Central Banks Excess Reserves Reality Over the past few weeks, virtually all of the empty chatterboxes on financial comedy TV have been repeating ad infinitum just how much cheaper the market now is compared to its prior peak in 2007 because, get this, it trades at "only" a 15x multiple compared to the 18x or so reached at its peak in 2007. By doing so these same hollow pundits simply confirm just how painfully clueless their cheerleading is, as the market, or what's left of it in the " new Bernanke centrally-planned abnormal ", never trades on current earnings but always future discounted EPS, or in other words, forward P/E, or any other valuation, multiples. And it is when one looks at the future on an apples to apples basis, that the market now is more expensive than it was back in 2007! As the chart below shows, specifically the red dotted line, the 2013 SP 500 consensus earnings, which have obviously been declining for the past year from 120 to roughly 110, are now less than what 2009 consensus earnings were at the peak of the market in 2007, when they, too, hit some 120 in Earnings per share. In other words, on a forward multiple basis, in 2007 the market was cheaper than it is now as earnings were supposed to go up virtually parabolically, from under 90 for year end 2007 to 108 for 2008 and 120 for 2009. Just as notable is the full year 2012 earnings which too were supposed to soar to nearly 120 as recently as 2010, instead closed at the very lowest of the forward projection series, or just about 100 in SP500 EPS. Putting this number in historical perspective as the blue line shows, back in 2007 the Wall Street consensus was expecting that 2008 earnings would be higher than where 2012 actual earnings will close the year. Of course, what ended up happening was vastly different, and both 2008 and 2009 actual earnings imploded from their peak estimates of 110 and 120 to approximately 65 and 60, or were literally cut in half as the Great Financial Crisis destroyed not only the corporate bottom line but all hopes of multiple expansion. And now we are back to forecasting a massive growth in the future, which as history has shown time and again, ir rarely if ever attained. But that is what the sell-side lemming crew is taught to do: draw upward sloping arrows and goalseek their models to fit an artificial regression line. Yet what the second chart below shows is that when one normalizes for the recent historical pattern in earnings, the consensus 2013 earnings forecast will once again be a major disappointment, and will end up being drastically reduced. In fact, if one extrapolates the inverted curved yellow line of what actual SP earnings have been in recent years, it is very likely that not only has the broader economy peaked, but so have corporate revenues, margins and earnings, and at this point any profit growth will be very limited at best. Finally, slamming the door shut on the future hope versus current reality myth, Goldman's latest Q4 earnings tally reminds us that with over 80% of Q4 earnings season done, EPS is now expected to decline by 1% relative to Q4 2011, (when Europe was imploding (as usual), and when the global central banks had to bailout the world once more). Some other observations: Trailing four-quarter margins declined in almost every sector . Index-level margins look stronger excluding charges but are still below last year’s peak. Management guidance for 1Q 2013 is more negative than us ual. 78% of companies guided down versus consensus estimates (versus 68% historically). Full-year margins fell by 30 bp versus last year with declines in almost every sector. The largest margin declines came from Telecom Services, Energy, and Materials. While Information Technology margins declined by 46 bp versus 2011, 8% sales growth resulted in relatively strong earnings growth of 5%. Bottom-up consensus expected 2012 EPS of $107 one year ago . This is 5% higher than realized results comparable to those estimates. A -5% revision is in-line with the median historical revision since 1984 Bottom-up consensus forecasts $112 of EPS for 2013. Consensus already lowered estimates by 1% in 2013 with the largest declines in Health Care and Information Technology earnings estimates. Who performed best? Why the one group benefitting most from trillions in excess reserves, and which is full to the gills of fake earnings like one-time items, non-recurring non-cash charges, and of course: loan-loss reserve releases rarely if ever matched by the need to raise provisions for the coming avalanche of lawsuits against all banks: The Financials sector reported the strongest year-over-year growth in 2012. Financials EPS grew 7% versus 2011 Finally, for that most trotted out metric that companies are "beating expectations" - here's why: since the start of earnings season in January, consensus Q4 earnings have declined by a massive 8% in just a few weeks ! Why of course companies will beat consensus EPS numbers that were some 8% higher just one month ago. The reality is that in order for companies to "beat" estimates, the consolidated Q4 EPS for the SP500 has had to drop from $25.51 to $23.47, which as already noted means a 1% drop in Y/Y Q4 earnings , and which means that contrary to what Bob Pisani may tell you, this earnings season will be the weakest in all of 2012, with little real hope for a pick up in 2013. Average: 4.857145 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 7 votes) Tweet - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 5994 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Bill Gross Proven Half Right (For Now): Fed's Kocherlakota Just Reduced His 2011 GDP Forecast From 3.0% To 2.5%
Chart Of The Day: America's Geriatric Work F(a)rce Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/02/2012 13:05 -0400 BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics Demographics The traditional excuse apologists for America's collapsing labor force participation rate use every month is that due to "demographics" and retiring baby boomers, increasingly more old workers are no longer counted by the BLS and as a result, are skewing the labor force. That's where they leave it because digging into details is not really anyone's forte anymore. This would be great if it was true. It isn't. A month ago in " 55 And Under? No Job For You " we presented visually and quite simply that of the 3.3 million jobs "created" (updated for October's data), a gasp-inducing 3.8 million has gone to workers aged 55 and over, or the one cohort that according to conventional wisdom is retiring, and actively leaving the workforce. How can America's elderly workers account for more than the total? Simple: workers in the young (16-19) and prime (25-54) cohorts have cumulatively lost a whopping 1.3 million, with just the 25-54 age group losing 842,000 jobs (don't believe us: spot check it right here courtesy of the Fed). In other words, America's edlerly are not only not in a rush to retire, they are reentering the workforce (thanks to the Chairman's genocidal savings policy which has just rendered the value of all future deposits worthless thanks to ZIRP), and in doing so preventing younger workers, in their prime years, from generating incremental jobs. And nowhere is this more visible than in today's jobs report. On the surface, the US generated a whopping 413,000 jobs (after generating a massive 873,000 last month) according to the Household Survey in October. That's great, unfortunately breaking down this cumulative addition by age cohort confirms precisely what we have said: all the jobs are going to old workers, who have zero wage bargaining leverage (as they just want to have a day to day paycheck). To wit: when broken down by age group, the total October increase shows that of the new jobs, 10.7% went to those aged 16-19 ( source ), 11.6% went to those aged 20-24 ( source ), a tiny 9.8% went to the prime agr group: 25-54 ( source ), and a massive 67.8% went to America's baby boomers: those aged 55 and over ( source ), and who refuse to leave the workforce and make way for others. Visually, this is as follows: But the most eye-opening chart is this one showing jobs in the 25-54 and 55 and over categories: And one wonders why America's labor force has no bargaining power, and why average hourly wages are imploding, and why nobody can afford anything anymore... Finally, all of the above excludes previous disclosures that the bulk of jobs created in the past 4 years is in the part-time job catergory. Average: 4.45 Your rating: None Average: 4.5 ( 20 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 10982 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: The Ever-Increasing Age Of Retirement $450 Billion In ZIRPorized Purchasing Power: Two Charts That Explain The Baby Boomer Dilemma America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Presidential Elections Chart Of The Day: 55 And Under? No Job For You The New Retirement Normal: The Average American Must Work For Two Extra Years After Death
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