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Asia Power/Utilities
Meter reading August 2008
Michael Tong, CFA
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6167
michael.tong@db.com
Eric Cheng, CFA
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6202
eric-ct.cheng@db.com
DB Asia Utility Monthly
The DB Asia Utility Monthly reviews all of the local newsflow, summarises all of
the recent sector research from Deutsche Bank and contains detailed share price
performance and sector comps.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider
this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain
companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can
access IR at http://gm.db.com or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Strategy
Top picks
Datang Int'l Power (0991.HK),HKD5.06 Buy
Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK),HKD30.00 Buy
Guangdong Investment (0270.HK),HKD2.77 Buy
Electricity Generating (EGCOf.BK),THB74.50 Buy
PGN (PGAS.JK),IDR2,325.00 Buy
Companies featured
Datang Int'l Power (0991.HK),HKD5.06 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 20.6 20.6 12.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 7.8 5.9
Price/book (x) 3.1 1.9 1.7
Guangdong Investment (0270.HK),HKD3.10 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 18.0 11.4 11.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.8 7.6 7.2
Price/book (x) 1.9 1.3 1.2
Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK),HKD30.00 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 25.8 18.5 15.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 7.5 6.1
Price/book (x) 1.6 1.2 1.2
Electricity Generating (EGCOf.BK),THB74.50 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 8.0 5.5 6.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 2.6 2.1
Price/book (x) 1.5 0.9 0.8
PGN (PGAS.JK),IDR2,325.00 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 31.2 15.7 10.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.1 8.9 6.1
Price/book (x) 10.99 6.07 4.46
Global Markets Research Company
Recent DB sector research
We lowered our rating on three China independent power producers (IPPs), as the sector is unlikely to recover soon after three months of sharply rising coal prices. Another potential tariff hike after the Olympics is likely but will not restore the sector margin, in our view. We downgraded the Indian utilities sector (NTPC, Tata Power and Reliance Power) to Sell on project execution concerns and what we see as rich valuations, and CKI to Hold on valuation as CKI has outperformed the HSI index by over 30% in the past three months. We reiterate our Buy ratings on EGCO and Ratchaburi, as we believe the recent sell-off was overdone and both companies are now among the cheapest stocks in the Asian Power/Utilities sector. We maintain Hold on Kepco on negative earnings outlook as the government is unlikely to approve sufficient tariff hikes given inflationary concerns.
News from the local press
Four of the five major gencos in China are likely to post losses in 1H08 due to surging coal costs (of the five HK-listed China IPPs we cover, Huaneng, Huadian, and CPI have already issued loss-making warnings). Power demand growth in China has slowed for two consecutive months and there could be downside risks to our utilisation rate forecast. News that CNPC is looking to restructure and expand its downstream gas distribution is also interesting, as such a move could result in fewer expansion opportunities for existing downstream players. Five bidders (including CLP, YTL Power and Tata Power) have been short-listed in the sale of Senoko Power in Singapore.
Share price movement and valuations
China IPPs have been the best performers on a relative basis in the past month, probably due to expectations of another tariff hike after the Olympics. Beijing Enterprises was second; we believe its steady growth outlook and well-protected gas sales margins in Beijing remain appealing to investors. Hong Kong utilities continue to outperform the volatile market due to their defensiveness. On the other hand, China water stocks, such as Tianjin Capital and China Everbright International, have significantly underperformed the market due to their high valuations and more liquidity outflow for the small cap space, in our view. The Thailand IPPs (EGCO and Ratchaburi) have also underperformed mainly due to negative newsflow on project delays and concerns about potential rise in Thailand long-term bond yields.
Table of Contents
DB research........................................................................................3
Recent newsflow.............................................................................25
Upcoming events.............................................................................33
Share price performance and sector comps.................................34
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