如果再发生一次世界经济危机，持有什么样的...

如果再发生一次世界经济危机，持有什么样的资产是最安全的？美元？人民币？黄金？房产？还是其他什么

1月9日：在部分坛友的回答中有所启发，觉得之前的问题太笼统了，价值不大。现在将问题具体化，并追加十个论坛币。

具体问题是，比如钱某 现在是做外贸生意的，出口电子产品，现在有三十万的美元现金资产，在美国开的账户上。其中十万左右是需要作为流动资金购买产品等，经常需要换成人民币。国内，在老家还有几亩田和山，只能种一季稻。在深圳暂住，无房产，车。

现在假设，16年美国再发生一次，08年那样的经济危机，而中国此时也深陷地方债务危机，欧元解散，日本深陷严重的通货膨胀中。但由于各方利益太过纠缠复杂，而爆发战争的可能性极小。

那么在15年面对即将到来的危机，钱某该怎样配置资产呢？

Assumptions:
1. cause of financial crisis is similiar to 08 crisis
2. effects of financial crisis spread to entire US economic system
3. Chinese local government debt crisis is unrelated to US financial crisis
4. disintegration of Euro is unrelated to US financial crisis
5. high inflation in Japan is unrelated to, or not solely related to,US financial crisis



Options:

• currency/cash
  

       a. USD: likely to be depreciating heavily due to the financial crisis
       b. RMB: the 100k USD used for working capital still needs to be converted to RMB; Chinese local government debt crisis is unliklely to affect value of RMB in international markets
       c. Euro: no go
       d. Swiss franc: CHF has shown its strength against the Euro. The recent removal of CHF cap against Euro serves a good example to show that when Euro weakens, Swiss franc strengthens.
      e. other currencies: if they are linked to the USD, especially in economies with floating exchange rate, they are no-go.
2. gold and other defense goods(value preserving)
     Best defense goods during times of uncertainly would be gold and other similar goods. However, similar rationale by all investors would lead to surge in demand for gold and hence surge in price.
3. stocks and other financial assets
    No go. Financial assets are the first to be sacrified during financial crisis. Besides, there is liquidity issue.
4. real estate and other real asset investments

    Transactions take time. However, some of these assets are likely to decrease in value due to distress sale("fire sale"). If you do have spare funds(after taking care of your living needs and maintenance of your factory), you could consider investing here.


Conclusion:
1. Of the 300k USD, 100k USD is used as working capital. However, during the crisis on a global scale, demand for electronic goods is likely to go down, hence  you no longer need 100k USD for working capital. Assume 50k USD is needed as working capital--it still needs to be converted to RMB for operations needs.
2. Of the remaining 250K USD, convert them to Swiss francs if you wish to keep them liquid; otherwise invest in real estate(look for distressed assets). This allows you to preserve the value of your wealth. In addition, you could now have your own home!

能源，比如石油

原子弹？

经济危机来了，钱再多也无用，要快地种粮吃。。。

美元最安全，美国ZF强大的实力能保证美元的安全

所有货币都没用，囤积商品，尤其是生活必需品

whiteice 发表于 2015-1-15 08:46
所有货币都没用，囤积商品，尤其是生活必需品

小心被饿的人掐死，让你囤！

危机发生的时候当然持有现金为王，美国无疑是世界上最安全的货币了。中国持有美国大量国债，美元贬值对中国也不利。

危机发生的时候当然持有现金为王，美国无疑是世界上最安全的货币了。中国持有美国大量国债，美元贬值对中国也不利。