美国贷款：速度与冒险

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美国贷款：速度与冒险
US loans: growing brood

By Lex December 1, 2014 5:28 pm

Banks are lending more – putting regulators on edge

——————————————

If the economy is a family, equity represents the grown ups, debt the children. Kids are great – new life and all that. They grow naughty, though, when too many are underfoot. The US has grown fecund. Are congratulations in order? Or is it off to the orphanage again, to dump the worst of the ankle-biters for restructuring?

Rates remain very low, and net interest margins remain slim. Banks are responding by lending more. In October, loans to customers stood at $7tn, according to the St Louis Federal Reserve, about a 10th higher than in 2008, before Lehman Brothers went bust. With the US economy growing robustly (by global standards), more businesses feel confident about investing. Commercial and industrial loans issued by banks have grown nearly 50 per cent since the post-crisis lows of late 2010. Commercial real estate (CRE) loans are growing at a particularly fast pace as banks back new development projects. In the last quarter JPMorgan’s CRE loan portfolio grew 13 per cent from a year earlier. The figures at Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of America are also rising, albeit more modestly.

Banks have eased credit conditions for large companies in 19 out of the past 20 quarters, according to Credit Suisse. A US Federal Reserve survey shows that 10.5 per cent of US banks have lowered their standards (giving loans to companies with lower credit scores) for big and midsized groups. Meanwhile, risky leveraged lending has continued to grow despite a regulatory crackdown. All this activity has put regulators on edge. They fear a repeat of the crisis, when all the bawling and dirty diapers took the family to the edge of insolvency. Specifically, the Fed is worried that growing competition between banks to win over new customers will lead many to weaken their underwriting standards and risk management assessments.

Yet, non performing loans have halved since the 2010 peaks. And bad debt charges have fallen to 0.23 per cent in the second half of this year, down from the 2.5 per cent high in the last quarter of 2009, Credit Suisse analysis shows.

Today’s banks are better capitalised than they were before the crisis. But high levels of risky debt could undermine those buffers. For the moment, the growing brood looks comfortable enough. But the more it grows, the riskier it becomes.

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关键词：Underwriting Structuring Competition Assessments real estate 美国 贷款

银行贷款更多 - 把监管放一边

如果经济是一个家庭，股权代表的大人，债务孩子。孩子们是伟大的 - 新的生命和一切。他们成长调皮，不过，当太多的脚下。美国已经成长肥沃。是为了祝贺？或者它关闭孤儿院再次倾倒最差的脚踝biters的重组？

率仍然非常低，净息差保持苗条。银行通过贷款更多的响应。在十月份，客户贷款总额为7TN，根据圣路易斯联储，约10高于2008年，雷曼兄弟破产之前。随着美国经济的强劲增长（按全球标准），越来越多的企业感到有信心投资。自2010年后期商业地产（CRE）贷款以特别快的速度增长，因为银行回新开发项目后金融危机低点，银行发行的商业和工业贷款近50％的增长。在最后一个季度摩根大通的CRE贷款组合较去年同期增长了13％。在富国银行，花旗集团和美国银行的数字也在上升，尽管更温和。

银行放宽信贷条件的大公司在19个过去20个季度中，根据瑞士信贷。一位美国联邦储备委员会的调查显示，美国银行的10.5％已经降低了他们的标准（给予贷款公司具有较低的信用评分）为大，中型企业集团。同时，高风险的杠杆贷款继续尽管监管力度的增长。所有这些活动已经把监管的边缘。他们担心的危机，当所有的喧闹和脏尿布带着家人到破产的边缘重演。具体来说，美联储担心银行之间日益激烈的竞争，以赢得新的客户会导致很多削弱他们的承保标准和风险管理评估。

然而，不良贷款已经从2010年的峰值减半。和坏帐费用都在今年下半年下降到0.23％，从2.5％有所下降高在2009年，瑞士信贷分析表明，上一季度。

今天的银行资本更比危机前。但高层次的债务风险可能会破坏这些缓冲区。目前，越来越多育雏看起来很舒服。但它的增长越多，风险较大就越大。