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【书名】Will there be a dollar crisis?
【作者】Paul Krugman
【出版社】Economic Policy
【版本】Volume 22, Issue 51 (p 435-467)
【出版日期】2007
【文件格式】pdf
【文件大小】
【页数】33
【ISBN出版号】
【资料类别】经济模型学
【市面定价】
【扫描版还是影印版】影印版
【是否缺页】完整
【关键词】dollar crisis
【摘要】Almost everyone believes that the US current account deficit must eventually end, and that this end will involve dollar depreciation. However, many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually. This paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of US external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect. As a result, there will at some point have to be a 'Wile E. Coyote moment'– a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply. It is much less clear, however, whether this 'crisis' will produce macroeconomic problems.
【原创书评】这是2008年Nobel经济学奖得主2007年发表的一篇文章，读了这篇文章，也许我们会明白现在美国政府救市的部分原因了。诚如作者说:the economics and policy of soft-landing does not rule out large dollar correction. It may actually need ‘more correction’: by how much is, however, an open issue.
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