【分享】端倪浮出了水面？！次贷危机的数量金融解释

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2009年2月2日消息："美国金融危机在全球扩散并引发金融海啸，一个重要原因是金融衍生品太多，而且缺乏监管。据了解，美国国会即将在本周开会讨论监管场外衍生工具的法案，法案重点包括规定买卖信贷违约掉期合约（CDS）时必须持有相关的债券，以及要求所有在美交易的场外衍生工具，均要通过中央结算所进行交收。由于全球的场外衍生工具市场684万亿美元，单单CDS就占了29万亿美元，有关改革的影响将会非常之大。据最新数据统计，在CDS市场中有超过80%都是没有持有相关债券而进行的买卖，因此，禁止无货交易差不多等于让约29万亿美元的CDS市场从此消失。而投资银行高盛及摩根士丹利的盈利中，有约40%是来自场外衍生工具的交易，因此有关加强监管的措施也将给这些投资银行的业务带来巨大影响。如果这一法案通过，市场可能急忙把80%没有相关债券在手的CDS仓位平仓，这有可能在金融市场引发新的震荡，使企业融资的成本上升，银行会出现新的亏损。无论任何一种情况出现，都将是一枚金融与政治炸弹。"

不错的介绍！！

经典啊！！！

喜欢简单明了言简意赅的分析，好！

这不是出自谋篇文章的东西吗？

恩，不错，又看了一次

以下是引用Louvecky在2009-2-4 10:05:00的发言：
这不是出自谋篇文章的东西吗？

哦，这位朋友有所不知，本贴除了2009年2月2日消息是摘自国内某知名咨询公司日报内容外，其他部分的每一个符号都是本人原创，动机只是与朋友们分享有关当下金融危机的核心知识。

之所以这是一篇有趣的帖子，是因为2008年11月发帖时不假思索的一句话：“有一个社会主义的解决方案：立法认定面值超过贷款本金的CDS合同无效，强行平仓。。。哈，金融衍生产品市场天下大乱！”，预言了美国国会这几天正在讨论的方案，你可以仔细比较帖子的正文和消息，表述稍有不同。

其实美国也是实在没有其他的选择了，你有其他办法吗？

很强啊，学习了！

下面摘自2009年2月11日美国国会听证会的记录：（关于CDS、CDO、SIV的抱怨，，，美国版“小沈阳”）
1:55: A Massachusetts representative (Michael Capuano) asks how many of the banks lent money to be directly used for credit-default swaps. He asks how many directly bought CDS. It looks like most, but they do not sound off verbally. The rep said he believes SIVs are “ILLEGAL” and starts yelling– actually yelling — : “I am amazed that NONE OF YOU HAVE BEEN PROSECUTED YET….How can any regulated bank have anything on its books that is TOTALLY UNREGULATED that does the same thing a bank does? You come to us today on your bikes, buying girl scout cookies, helping out Mother Teresa, saying, ‘we’re sorry; trust us.’ He says he has constituents who have robbed some of their banks saying the same thing, which draws laughs. But he will not be stopped. The message is that people don’t believe the CEOs have learned their lessons. “You created CDOs, CDS, SIVs, you CREATED them –and you’re not the only ones, you’re just the ones sitting here — and now you’re here today saying, ‘we’re sorry, trust us, and we don’t even want the money.” The problem I have is that honestly, NONE OF US, America does not trust you any more. I myself get a lot of money to put in banks. I don’t have ONE SINGLE PENNY in all your banks. Not one. Because I don’t want my money in CDOs or credit-default swaps. We don’t believe anything wil change UNTIL YOU CHANGE THE PEOPLE WHO BROUGHT YOU INTO SIVs. Who was the brilliant person who brought you into credit default swaps? BRING HIM IN. FIRE HIM. And don’t say you’re not using THAT money for bonuses. Money is NOT FUNGIBLE in your entities. It’s fungible EVERYWHERE else…in this new world that YOU created and WE have to clean up.” We may have missed a few words, because he was shouting loud and fast, but that is most of it.
2:03: We’re pretty sure that credit-default swaps were not created by one guy. (Later, we get a phone call claiming that it was actually a woman, anyway.)

2:04: The Wall Street CEOs remain unshaken by the representative’s show of emotion. They are answering questions sassily, at this point, as if they are dealing with the B team.
2:08: What are the future potential losses? Stumpf says he started out as a collector and there are only four reasons for default: Death, divorce, unscheduled medical payment and job loss. So, as go jobs and employment, so goes credit. Pandit theorizes that profits and losses at banks are tied to GDP and employment. “Anything we can do to increase the amount of employment can only help us.” Pandit says lending may be spurred by a stimulus plan and waves a sheaf of papers describing Citigroup’s expenditures of TARP money. John M for Mack says that the credit markets are opening again, compared to the situation after the fall of Lehman. When pressed on whether Morgan Stanley will lend, Mack says that they are small in consumer business, at which point he is bluntly cut off.
2:11: Only time for two more questions.