发帖
雷达卡
13 November 2008
Industrial waste disposal
Transform into eco-industry
Masaaki Kitami, CMA
Research Analyst
(+81) 3 5156-6735
masaaki.kitami@db.com
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought leading
The Equity Research Division’s Stock Selection Committee certifies this report as
“FITT” for its originality. The industrial waste disposal market continues to grow.
Guided by the Basic Environment Law, we expect the waste disposal industry to
transform into an eco-industry due to revision of the Waste Management Law,
greater awareness about compliance, and advances in recycling and other
disposal technologies. We are focusing on related companies during this process.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at http://gm.db.com or by calling 1-877-
208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
FITT Research
Companies featured
Daiseki (9793.T),¥2,450 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (¥) 125 115 129
P/E (x) 21.1 21.2 19.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.5 11.2 10.5
Fundamental: Comprehensive research of industrial waste disposal industry
Guided by the principles established in the Basic Environment Law enacted in
August 1994, market growth is being driven by the recent revision and
strengthening of the Waste Management Law, greater corporate awareness about
compliance, advancements in recycling and other disposal technologies, higher
demand for recycled fuel, and growth in outsourcing demand driven by a decline
in the working population and other factors. These are global environmental trends
rather than temporary factors, and we believe demand will continue to increase.
Industry: Legal changes, better technology fuels disposal market growth
We expect the industrial waste disposal market in Japan to grow at an annual rate
of 9% from an estimated ¥2.9trn in 2000 to ¥6.9trn in 2010 as a result of growth in
industrial waste output from stable production activity, revision of the Waste
Management Law and regulatory tightening, and improved compliance.
Thematic: Transform into eco-industry; success hinges on recycling
technology, compliance
A shakeout is accelerating as the market grows. Key points are the presence of
recycling and other disposal technologies and the preparation of compliance
systems. This industry has a large number of small and medium-sized companies,
and success or failure is increasingly determined by technological capabilities and
compliance systems, as indicated by large firms expanding their market share. We
expect a major transformation from a waste disposal industry to an eco-industry.
Thought Leading: Focus on industrial waste firms due to market growth,
disposal technology
We initiate coverage of Daiseki (9793.T) with a Buy rating because the company is
the largest among listed firms in the areas of treating specially controlled industrial
waste materials like oil, acid, and sludge, which is difficult to handle and has high
entry barriers, and it has sophisticated recycling and other disposal technologies
and a reliable compliance system.
Valuations and risks
Our target prices for industrial waste disposal companies consider valuations
based on growth potential and P/E multiples as well as an APV-EVATM model
(absolute valuations based on medium-term earnings estimates) as a result of
expecting earnings growth over the medium to long term. Sector-wide upside
risks include: 1) further innovation in disposal technology; and 2) rapid growth in
industrial waste output due to greater production activity and other factors.
Downside risks include: 1) rapid decline in industrial waste output; and 2) slow
innovation in disposal technology. See the individual companies section for more
information on Daiseki.
Table of Contents
Investment points.............................................................................. 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuations.................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Valuations and Risks ......................................................................... 4
Evaluating industrial waste service firms by growth potential and P/E .....................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................5
1. Key points in the industrial waste sector.................................... 7
Transformation from “industrial waste disposal” to “eco industry.” Focus points include
stronger compliance efforts and recycling technology .............................................................7
Progress in strengthening compliance efforts – 1: Methods for outsourcing disposal.............7
Strengthening compliance 2: Illegal dumping problem working to strengthen industry .........13
Regulatory revisions boost new market entrants, but firms withdrawing from market also on
the rise ...................................................................................................................................17
Recycling technology to separate winners from losers ..........................................................19
Waste disposal and recycling laws .........................................................................................21
2. Future Outlook............................................................................. 25
Market expansion continues as regulatory revision and disposal technology advances.........25
Building a recycling-based society ..........................................................................................25
Overview of basic plan for establishing recycling-based society ............................................25
Growth in environmental business market..............................................................................27
Future of industrial waste disposal .........................................................................................27
IT-controlled waste management systems .............................................................................27
Key players in the industrial waste disposal industry ..............................................................28
Overseas trends in industrial waste disposal..........................................................................29
Domestic industrial waste disposal firms ...............................................................................31
3. Overview of industrial waste ..................................................... 33
What constitutes industrial waste? .........................................................................................33
Types of industrial waste: 20 in all ..........................................................................................33
Hard-to-handle specially controlled industrial waste ...............................................................34
Industrial waste emissions exceed 400m tons .......................................................................35
Industrial waste emissions by type, industry and region: Sludge the biggest ........................35
How industrial waste is handled: Over half is reused .............................................................37
Industrial waste processing flow ............................................................................................38
Only about 6% of annual waste now heads into final disposal...............................................38
Collection: Trucks, dumpers, and tankers predominantly used...............................................39
Heavy use of trucks ................................................................................................................39
Containers used in collection: Mostly drums ..........................................................................39
Types of disposal facilities: many involve crushing, dehydration ............................................40
Final disposal ..........................................................................................................................41
Methods for disposal of industrial waste................................................................................43
4. <Reference> Industrial waste disposal methods...................... 44
Daiseki (9793)................................................................................... 55
282432.pdf
(1.78 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
