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雷达卡
Europe
Media
17 November 2008
media@db
Fast and thick
Paul Reynolds
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 76539
paul.reynolds1@db.com
Mark Braley, ACA
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 59904
mark.braley@db.com
Patrick Kirby
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 73560
patrick.kirby@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at http://gm.db.com or by calling 1-877-
208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Strategy
Euromedia Sector Performance
14/11/08
N D J F M A M J J A S O N
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
DJ STOXX 600 MEDIA E - PRICE INDEX
DJ STOXX 600 E - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Datastream
Table of contents
IPSOS Pg 03
Mediaset Pg 04
Mondadori Pg 05
RCS MediaGroup Pg 07
Reed Elsevier (UK) Pg 14
Seat-Pagine Gialle Pg 15
TF1 Pg 17
Thomson Reuters Plc Pg 18
Trinity Mirror Plc Pg 19
Q308 MISSES from eve of results
Stock %age chg in share price
TF1 +4.8%
Wolters Kluwer +2%
ITV 0%
Antena 3 -1.4%
Aegis -4.5%
Havas -4.9%
Prisa -11.4%
Johnston Press -15.8%
JC Decaux -24.7%
Q308 IN-LINES from eve of results
Stock %age chg in share price
Trinity Mirror +28.7%
Reed Elsevier +11.4%
Pearson +8.5%
Publicis +6.5%
Vivendi +3.3%
WPP +1.5%
Mediaset -1.5%
Lagardere -2.1%
Telecinco -2.9%
Q308 BEATS from eve of results
Stock %age chg in share price
BSkyB +11.3%
Thomson Reuters +9.6%
Ipsos +5.5%
Yell 0%
MTG -16.7%
Global Markets Research Company
Vivendi (BUY, E33 tgt) – trading ahead, guidance reiterated.
Q308 EBITA results were ahead of DB/consensus. Guidance was reiterated for
FY08 EPS (~+8% pre M&A), as was a similar level of divi growth. Importantly SFR
achieved lots of “quality” growth in the quarter – very strong post-paid subscriber
additions – and the company can now rein back and make FY guidance in this
division. Liquidity is good and we estimate 15% FCF yield and 7% dividend yield.
TF1 (HOLD, E12 tgt) – Q3 ad revs better than feared, but diversifications poor
TF1’s operating results were below our forecasts. Whilst TF1 core channel
advertising was ahead, diversifications were very weak. Historically, these are a
more predictable, however in Q1 and Q3 they have caused material EPS misses.
TF1 cut FY08 revenue guidance to -6% from -3% (DB at -5.4%). Our confidence in
upside from regulatory reform in FY09 is low as the slump builds; we maintain a
Hold as momentum is negative and downside risk remains high.
Havas (BUY, E2.75 tgt) – weak Q3 revenues, but margin guidance maintained
Havas reported Q3 organics at just +1.5% v. DBe at +3.5%. This reflects tough
comps (+9.3% Q3 last year) and the (previously flagged) loss of Dell Asia. Overall
revenues met forecasts via acquisitions. Havas reiterated its 08 11-12% margin
goal: our estimates do assume a bottom of range 11%. For all agencies we
assume negative Q4 (around -2% organic) and negative 2009 -5%. Havas is by far
the cheapest of the agencies (0.6x EV/revenue 2009 vs peers on 0.9-1x). BUY.
Yell (BUY, 165p tgt) – H1 results – new savings, guidance reiterated
EBITDA was 5% ahead of our forecast, with the group's Q3 outlook (-5% organic
revenue decline) also slightly better than our expectation. Trading has deteriorated
since mid-Sep, but we believe cost savings, including an incremental £100m, will
support EBITDA. Fast online revenue growth continues (+41% organic), with
strong user growth. Valuation remains low (2.1x P/E 2010), with the prospect of
continued de-leveraging supporting long term upside for the equity valuation. Buy.
Newspapers – dire trading, covenant issues
Both Johnston Press (HOLD, 25p tgt) and Trinity Mirror (HOLD, 40p tgt) gave
IMS this week. Current trading is very poor – with Regionals ad revs on a run rate
of down 25%. DMGT (SELL, 235p) gives FY-08 on 20-Nov: expect ad revs in
heavy decline, and further pressure on the property / credit info operations.
Professional publishers – still OK-ish, but are we just deferring the pain?
Thomson Reuters (SELL, 1000p tgt) and Reed Elsevier (HOLD, 770p tgt) gave
Q3/IMS. In both cases trading appears to have held up well, but we continue to
have concerns. Inv. Banking headcount only started to drop precipitously in Sep-
08, TRIL will face a much harder backdrop in Q4-08 and Q1-09 and we have
concerns that high levels of transaction revenues could fall away if markets
“normalise”. Currency is a big upward kicker across this space – for example
Reed EPS forecasts rose by close to 10% - and the space remains relatively
defensive. But to varying degrees, customers – bankers, lawyers, scientists,
schools etc – are all late-cycle plays on the economy. Our key underweight is
Pearson (SELL, 510p tgt) – state tax revenue dropping fast, FT ad revenues to
fall, weak consumer book demand. UBM (BUY, 690p tgt) gives an IMS on 18-
Nov. But on 7x PE, with an FX kicker and a strong balance sheet, UBM is
attractive. We expect the challenging environment to be adequately reflected in
our 0% revenue growth estimate.
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