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CEE Oil & Gas
Downhill ahead; downgrading
PKN to Sell
Gergely Varkonyi, CFA
Research Analyst
(+36) 1 301-3748
gergely.varkonyi@db.com
Our downgrade of PKN to Sell leaves us with three Sell ratings in the sector
Some of the effects of a severe global economic slowdown on our CEE oil & gas
universe have yet to be reflected in the operating environment and stock
valuations. There are still a few bright spots on the landscape, but we expect
these to vanish next year, leaving CEE oil & gas companies with a very challenging
outlook. Against this bearish backdrop, MOL could outperform its peers, but the
outlook could significantly worsen for PKN, PGNiG and Lotos before it gets better.
We rate MOL a Buy, while PKN (previously Buy), PGNiG and Lotos are rated Sell.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch/ or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Forecast change
Top picks
MOL (MOLB.BU),HUF9,800.00 Buy
PKN Orlen (PKNA.WA),PLN27.30 Sell
PGNiG (PGNI.WA),PLN3.50 Sell
Grupa Lotos (LTOS.WA),PLN12.20 Sell
Companies featured
MOL (MOLB.BU),HUF9,800.00 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (HUF) 2,209.00 886.44 913.25
P/E (x) 11.0 11.1 10.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 3.5 4.5
PKN Orlen (PKNA.WA),PLN27.30 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (PLN) 6.46 1.08 0.55
P/E (x) 8.0 25.2 49.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.2 6.5 7.9
PGNiG (PGNI.WA),PLN3.50 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (PLN) 0.34 0.16 0.21
P/E (x) 14.2 21.8 16.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.9 8.0 7.2
Grupa Lotos (LTOS.WA),PLN12.20 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (PLN) 7.02 -0.50 -0.59
P/E (x) 6.6 – –
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 7.6 18.9
Global Markets Research Company
This report contains changes to price targets, ratings and estimates for several
companies under our coverage. For details, see Figures 1 and 2.
A major downhill in financial performance is expected from 4Q08
Excluding inventory losses, 3Q08 was a fairly robust quarter for our universe.
However, we see major deterioration from 4Q08 as PKN, PGNiG and Lotos are all
likely to post EBITDA losses and we expect our entire universe to record
significant net losses. This should provide a glimpse as to how difficult 2009 could
be, as even today’s few bright spots (such as strong diesel cracks and monomer
margins) may vanish as the severe global economic slowdown takes its toll on
refining, petchem and upstream margins. Favourable fx rates could provide a
glimmer of hope for EBITDA, but hedging (direct or indirect) could melt this away.
We see significant downside risk to consensus, which bodes ill for stock
performance.
MOL to boost its balance sheet strength with the Omani deal
Our analysis highlights that PGNiG has the strongest balance sheet, although it is
set to deteriorate given the recently announced large investment programme. The
next in line is MOL, which should have a solid financial footing once the deal with
Oman is closed ($1.3bn); we expect this to be a major stock catalyst. MOL should
also have the strongest free cash flow. PKN’s financing outlook largely depends
on the execution of divestments; while this should be positive, we are concerned
that the visibility on making acquisitions first is much higher. Lotos’ balance sheet
should become the weakest but we are not concerned about its solvency.
Valuations based on APV; MOL is the cheapest stock by relative valuation
We value our CEE oil & gas universe with the APV method, an absolute, cash flowbased
valuation (p17). As to relative valuation, MOL is by far the cheapest stock in
our universe and the only one that trades at a discount to EMEA and GEMs peers
(p16). For a detailed list of upside and downside risks, please see pp.19-20.
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