汇丰银行：2009年欧洲宏观经济展望

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Diving into the unknown
Recession and policy responses in an unconventional world

GDP expected to contract in 2009 across Europe
􀀗 Further rate cuts and fiscal stimulus to be delivered ...
􀀗 ... and unconventional measures now imminent
Europe still has some pockets of “relative” strength. In Western Europe, Germany’s
private sector surplus and small budget deficit accord it a degree of comfort as its
recession deepens. In CEE, Poland stands out as the country where there is at least some
prospect that resilient domestic consumption means it should not undergo the deep
recessions now forecast for Hungary and Russia. But even for such countries which are
escaping the worst of the global house price declines and – so far – banking crises, the
outlook for 2009 is far from pretty. After contracting by nearly 1% q-o-q in 4Q08 we
expect the Eurozone to remain in recession in 1H09 and expect only a very gradual
recovery thereafter, resulting in 2009 full-year GDP falling by 1.4% as investment falls
sharply. Even in 2010, we see GDP growth of less than 1%. In the UK the economy is
likely to contract by 2.5% as a consequence of the ongoing household balance sheet
adjustment. In CEE the biggest forecast drop has been in Russia which we believe is
already in recession and is likely to register a full year contraction in GDP of 2%.
On the policy front, the fiscal stimulus announced so far in the UK and elsewhere in
Europe is actually small relative to previous recession periods and the country which has
the most scope to deliver a large stimulus – Germany – appears to be awaiting an
externally-led recovery. The deepening recession and rapidly approaching election is
widely expected to trigger a larger stimulus in Germany in early 2009. It is more likely to
be aimed at infrastructure spending and supporting employment growth rather than the US
and UK-style policies aimed at directly supporting near-term demand.
On monetary policy, we expect further rate cuts across the region. The ECB is expected to
cut to 1.5% and the BoE to just 0.25%. We also expect aggressive cuts across CEE, but
the lack of an available supply of loanable funds will likely persist across Europe.
The onus of monetary policy will increasingly shift to alternative measures. We expect the
BoE and ECB to follow the Fed’s shift into quantitative easing and probably into making
outright purchases of debt securities. Further steps to bypass the banking system are also
likely, but a greater government role in the allocation of credit has implications for trend
growth which are unlikely to be positive.
In an environment when other European central banks appear to be falling over each other
in their attempts to talk their currencies down, and one in which we see the US dollar
weakening further in response to the unconventional measures being adopted, the euro
will feel the brunt of appreciation pressure.
Diving into the unknown
Recession and policy responses in an unconventional world
Economics
Europe
Janet Henry*
Economist
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6711
janet.henry@hsbcib.com
Astrid Schilo*
Economist
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6708
astrid.schilo@hsbcib.com
Karen Ward*
Economist
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 3692
karen.ward@hsbcib.com
Mathilde Lemoine*
Economist
HSBC France
+33 1 40 70 32 66
mathilde.lemoine@hsbc.fr
Lothar Hessler*
Economist
HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhart AG
+49 211 910 2906
lothar.hessler@hsbctrinkaus.de
Juliet Sampson*
Economist
HSBC Bank plc
+44 020 7991 5651
juliet.sampson@hsbcib.com
View HSBC Global Research at:
http://www.research.hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate of
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not
registered/qualified pursuant to NYSE
and/or NASD regulations
Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc
Disclaimer &
Disclosures
This report must be read
with the disclosures and
the analyst certifications in
the Disclosure appendix,
and with the Disclaimer,
which forms

目录

Diving into the unknown 3
ECB hesitant, whilst SNB
shows its aggressive side 14
BoE: Old Lady, new tricks 17
HSBC Forecasts 19
Eurozone 20
Germany 22
France 24
Italy 26
Spain 28
UK 30
Norway 32
Sweden 33
Switzerland 34
Hungary 35
Poland 36
Russia 37
Turkey 38
Previous European
publications 39
Disclosure appendix 42
Disclaimer 43
Contents

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