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雷达卡
Semiconductors
Turn at hand, but dictates patience
A potential bottom at hand
Following a carnage of epic proportions, we think semiconductor stocks could be
in the process of carving out a bottom. Our view stems from indications from two
timing metrics that have historically presaged a bottom in the stocks: 1) the
potential for an imminent deceleration in the pace of downward estimate revisions
and 2) the state of supply chain inventory relative to end consumption even in the
event of a tepid economic recovery.
Revision momentum indicator points to a turn …
Specifically, our analysis of historical data suggests that an inflection point for chip
stocks is typically signaled by a reduction in the pace of downward estimate
revisions; the actual magnitude of revisions matters less. Importantly, our updated
momentum indicator (Fig. 6), which attempts to capture the pace of revisions, is
now in a “zone” that has been visited only once prior (summer of 2001),
suggesting the potential for an imminent turn...
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