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英文文献：Estimating the Impact of Means-tested Subsidies under Treatment Externalities with Application to Anti-Malarial Bednets-评估外部性治疗条件下经经济状况调查的补贴对抗疟疾蚊帐的影响
英文文献作者：Debopam Bhattacharya,Pascaline Dupas,Shin Kanaya
英文文献摘要：
Regular use of effective health-products such as insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITN) by a household benefits its neighbors by (a) reducing chances of infection and (b) raising awareness about product-effectiveness, thereby increasing product-use. Due to their potential social benefits and high purchase price, causing free-riding and sub-optimal private procurement, such products may be subsidized in developing countries through means-testing. Owing to associated spillover effects, cost-benefit analysis of such subsidies requires modelling behavioral responses of both the subsidized household and its neighbors. Using experimental data from Kenya where subsidies were randomized, coupled with GPS-based location information, we show how to estimate aggregate ITN use resulting from means-tested subsidies in the presence of such spatial spillovers. Accounting for spillovers introduces infinite-dimensional estimated regressors corresponding to continuously distributed location coordinates and makes the inference problem novel. We show that even if individual ITN use unambiguously increases with increasing incidence of subsidy in the neighborhood, ignoring spillovers may over- or under-predict overall ITN use resulting from a specific targeting rule, depending on the resulting aggregate incidence of subsidy. Applying our method to the Kenyan data, we find that (i) individual ITN use rises with neighborhood subsidy-rates, (ii) under means-testing, predicted ITN use is a convex increasing function of the subsidy incidence and (iii) ignoring spillovers implies a nearly-linear increasing relationship leading to over-estimation of ITN use at lower and under-estimation at higher subsidy rates.
家庭经常使用有效的保健产品，如经杀虫剂处理的蚊帐(ITN)，对其邻国有利，因为:(a)减少感染的机会和(b)提高对产品有效性的认识，从而增加产品的使用。由于这些产品潜在的社会效益和高昂的购买价格，造成搭便车和不理想的私人采购，发展中国家可以通过经济状况调查对这些产品进行补贴。由于相关的溢出效应，这种补贴的成本效益分析需要对受补贴家庭及其邻居的行为反应进行建模。利用肯尼亚的实验数据(肯尼亚的补贴是随机的)，再加上基于gps的位置信息，我们展示了在存在这种空间溢出的情况下，如何估计由经济状况调查补贴导致的ITN总使用量。考虑溢出引入了与连续分布的位置坐标对应的无限维估计回归，使推理问题具有新的意义。我们的研究表明，即使个别ITN的使用明显地随着邻近地区补贴发生率的增加而增加，忽略溢出效应也可能会对特定目标规则导致的ITN的总体使用做出过度或低估的预测，具体取决于补贴的总发生率。肯尼亚数据运用我们的方法,我们发现(i)个人ITN利用社区subsidy-rates上升,(2)根据调查,预测ITN使用是一个凸发生率增加补贴的函数,(3)忽视溢出效应意味着nearly-linear增加关系导致ITN使用较低的高估和低估补贴率更高。
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