摩根大通：美国电子设备行业研究报告2009年1月

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Electrical Equipment & Multi
Industry
Monthly Macro Meter
Electrical Equipment & Multi-
Industry
C. Stephen Tusa, Jr CFAAC
(1-212) 622-6623
stephen.tusa@jpmorgan.com
Phil Gresh
(1-212) 622-4861
phil.m.gresh@jpmorgan.com
Drew Pierson
(1-212) 622-6627
drew.a.pierson@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
See page 47 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or
companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
This monthly report is designed to provide a snapshot on trends across the
industrial economy and includes specific industry data pertinent to the stocks
in the EE/MI sector. We gather both relevant government and independent
industry data for the most important end markets.
• No sign of relief in global macro data – meter remains below “soft”.
Global macroeconomic activity contracted sharply, as measured by JPM’s
global ISM survey, which fell to 33.2 in December (November, 36.4,
October 41.0). The reading represents the sharpest monthly contraction of
the manufacturing sector since the survey began in 1998. New orders (25.3)
contracted at a faster rate than in November (29.7). The OECD leading
indicator index continues to decline, down 3.5% y/y, suggesting further
weakness ahead.
• Deeper weakening in US business activity – ISM already blows through
recent cycles’ lows. The US ISM Manufacturing Index fell again in
December to 32.4 (from 36.2), the lowest reading since 1980. The new
orders component went to 22.7 from 27.9, an all-time low. Inventories ticked
downward (to 38.8 from 39.1), but the order-inventory spread of -16.1 is also
at an all-time low. Industrial production decreased 7.3% y/y in December
(from down 5.3% y/y in November), while December’s consumer confidence
index reading of 38.0 is an all-time low.
• Negative trends continue in Europe, China. Euro Area manufacturing
PMI slid to 33.9 in December, from 35.6 in November. In China, the outlook
remains tepid: IP growth slowed to 5.4% y/y in November, another 7-year
low, while PMI remained low at 41.2 in December (from 40.9 in November
from 45.2 in October).
• Other interesting data points: M&T inventory/sales ratio increased to 1.41
from 1.33 last month. November capacity utilization at 75.4, from 76.0.
System-wide airline ASMs down 8.0% y/y. NA Class 8 preliminary truck
orders down 58% y/y in December. Housing starts down 47% y/y (19%
m/m) to lowest levels since data began in 1971. November ABI at 34.7,
lowest since data began in 1995. Baker Hughes global rig count down 227
(~7%) m/m. HVAC book-to-bill decreased to 0.93, from 1.06. JPM Global
High Yield Index spreads touched a record high of 1,925 before contracting
to ~1600 bps (versus November average of ~1630 bps).

Table of Contents
Industrial Company Monthly Indicators .................................6
Industrial Macro Environment...............................................12
U.S. Economic Indicators ..........................................................................................12
International Economic Indicators .............................................................................15
Other Industrial Indicators .........................................................................................18
Industry-Specific Monthly Data.............................................20
Aerospace & Defense ................................................................................................20
Automotive ................................................................................................................25
Construction/Housing ................................................................................................28
Energy........................................................................................................................33
Financial Services ......................................................................................................35
Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC)................................................40
The author acknowledges the contribution of Amit Sharma of J.P. Morgan Services
India Private Ltd., Mumbai, to this report.

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