汇丰银行：亚太地区计算机硬件行业研究报告2008年7月

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Initiate coverage on Acer at Overweight,
Lenovo and Synnex at Overweight (V),
and D-Link at Neutral (V)
􀀗 Acer and Lenovo continue to enjoy
better than average growth. Synnex is
the clear IT distribution leader
􀀗 We do not recommend SOHO
networking vendors, as there are no
meaningful growth drivers in 2008
Only selective companies can win
Companies focusing more on notebook PCs (27% growth in
2008) and emerging markets (40% growth) should be more
resilient to economic uncertainty. There are still rooms for
top 4 PC vendors (including Acer and Lenovo) to increase
market share, as they only account for 52% of global share.
Channels are more important than branding
For PC and SOHO networking products, channel strategies
create differentiation and entry barriers, improve efficiency,
and increase profitability. The branding effect is not obvious
for these companies. Channels and efficiency are the keys to
success.
Branded companies should outperform
manufacturing companies
We believe branded companies will outperform
manufacturing companies over the next 12 months because
the consolidation among PC brands is almost complete, but
the threat of new entries has intensified for OEM/ODMs.
Ratings and target prices for four companies
􀀗 Acer (OW, TP: TWD75.6), based on our sum-of-theparts
valuation, for 42.8% total potential return.
􀀗 Lenovo (OW (V), TP: HKD6.91), targeting a PE of 15x
our 2008 EPS forecast, for 29.0% total potential return.
􀀗 Synnex (OW (V), TP: TWD86.5), targeting a PE of 19x
our 2008 EPS forecast, for 25.4% total potential return.
􀀗 D-Link (N (V), TP: TWD46.8) targeting a PE of 12x our
2008 EPS forecast, for 19.8% total potential return.

Investment summary 4
2008/09 industry outlook 7
Brand name does not
guarantee success 11
Channels and efficiency are
the keys 15
Valuation 20
Company profiles 25
Acer (2353.TW) 26
Lenovo (0992.HK) 32
Synnex Technology (2347.TW) 38
D-Link (2332.TW) 43
Appendix 1: Involvement
theory 48
Appendix 2: PB-ROE analysis 54
Disclosure appendix 60
Disclaimer 63

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2009-1-27 12:12:00 上传

汇丰银行：亚太地区计算机硬件行业研究报告2008年7月
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