汇丰银行：德国电信行业研究报告2008年2月

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We are upgrading United Internet to
Overweight, staying Overweight on
Drillisch, remaining Neutral (V) on
freenet, initiating coverage of Versatel
with an Underweight (V) rating and
downgrading QSC to Underweight (V)
􀀗 Market growth slowing as penetration
rises and price erosion moderates
􀀗 Consolidation seems unavoidable, with
growing saturation, emerging cable
competition and fibre investment ahead
Winners and losers
In the changing German telecoms environment, we think the
smaller independent players will struggle to compete against the
bigger names. As the market consolidates, we prefer large
subscriber bases to wider networks. We like United Internet
(upgrading to Overweight, target price EUR16.5) not only for
its large customer base, but for its diversification, growth
profile, cash flows and strategic position. We see Drillisch
(Overweight, target EUR5.8) as fundamentally undervalued
(9.7 08e PE) and as the most likely beneficiary of any breakup
of freenet (Neutral (V), target EUR14.0). We are sceptical of
the network plays, initiating coverage of Versatel with an
Underweight (V) rating and a EUR18 target) and downgrading
QSC to Underweight (V), with a EUR1.7 target (from EUR2.6).
Size does matter
Looking at telecom markets around the globe, we try to spot
trends that could apply to the German market. We find that
German broadband penetration has caught up with the rest of
Europe, which is seeing a slowing in subscriber growth. As
Deutsche Telekom stabilises its market share, small, emerging
cable operators are fighting for the remaining growth potential,
leaving altnets struggling to maintain market share. Price
erosion should slow, we believe, while competition is likely to
shift to greater speed and better services. This, in turn, is likely
to trigger costly network upgrades, amid more investmentfriendly
US-style regulation. These trends, we believe, should
fuel German altnet consolidation. After a decade of regulationdriven
growth of the subscale players, size now matters again
and the synergy potential within the industry is significant.

目录

Investment summary 3
German broadband market 8
German cable 14
Consolidation scenarios 17
International read across 22
Drillisch 28
Freenet 32
QSC 36
United Internet 41
Versatel AG 48
Glossary 54

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