汇丰银行：中国证券行业研究报告2008年1月

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China’s liquidity outflow to the Hong
Kong stock market, is both a structural
and powerful driver of brokers’ revenue
􀀗 Expanding scale boosts not only
margins but also ROEs
􀀗 We initiated coverage on three medium
sized brokers we believe will benefit:
First Shanghai (0227.HK, OW (V)),
Taifook (0665.HK, OW (V)), and Shenyin
Wanguo (0218.HK, N (V))
Capturing the “water from the north”
Hong Kong stock market turnover has grown almost
uninterrupted in the last two decades on a rolling five-year
basis. Since 2006, the liquidity outflow from China to Hong
Kong has not only extended this trend, but also drove growth
to new highs. Being a policy need of the China government
and the many steps in relaxing the outflow to HK that
followed, make us believe this is a structural trend.
We think listed brokers are prime beneficiaries. We initiated
coverage on Taifook (0665.HK; OW (V)), our top pick
given its low PE and most diversified business mix. With a
target price of HK6.35, this represents 54% potential total
return. We also rate First Shanghai (0227.HK) Overweight
(V) with an expected 23.1% CAGR between 2008-11e, our
target price of HKD3.2 suggests 51.2% potential total return.
Shenyin Wanguo (0218.HK, TP HKD8.4), has one of the
strongest connections and franchise in China through its
parent company: rated Neutral (V) on its relatively higher
valuation. With a target price of HKD8.4, this represents
19.6% potential total return.
At a time when regional markets are consolidating due to
external jitters, we think this represents opportunity to
accumulate these selected brokers.
Risks: policy changes and uncertainties, stock market
turnover volatility, commission rate cuts, shortage in
experienced staff and system capability, counterparty,
funding needs to further capitalise.

目录

Investment summary 3
The quotable quotes 8
Risks 12
Valuation comparison 19
Mainland capital outflow is
structural 23
The “Northern water flowing
south” game 26
HK market turnover 30%
CAGR is achievable 28

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