德意志银行：2009年英国旅游酒店行业展望

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12 January 2009
Pan-European Leisure
Themes and Outlook for 2009
Simon Champion, ACA
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 51983
simon.champion@db.com
Geof Collyer
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 75325
geof.collyer@db.com
Jon Tarasewicz
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 57419
jon.tarasewicz@db.com
Momentum investing in 2008 provides interesting opportunities for 2009
With eight subsectors in leisure it is difficult to give a single 2009 outlook, but
2008 saw some sharp swings in share prices as investors moved out of pubs,
hotel, tourism and airline stocks into the perceived safer haven of catering and bus
and rail. We believe that these substantial swings now provide significant
opportunities for investors in 2009. We favour flexibility, low leverage, low supply
environment sectors at a reasonable valuation in 2009.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Top picks
Accor SA (ACCP.PA),EUR33.95 Buy
Whitbread (WTB.L),GBP937.50 Buy
TUI Travel (TT.L),GBP229.00 Buy
Arriva (ARI.L),GBP589.50 Buy
Playtech (PTEC.L),GBP322.25 Buy
Least preferred
Sodexho (EXHO.PA) Eur 39.57 Sell
Easyjet (EZJ.L) GBP 297.75 Sell
JD Wetherspoons (JDW.L)GBP 311.50 Sell
Key themes for Leisure in 2009
Credit market outlook
Earnings outlook for 2010
Flexibility of business models
Focus on supply dynamics
Government regulation
Refocus on sector valuation
Outlook for consolidation
Global Markets Research Company
Credit cycle will remain in focus
In what is a relatively leveraged consumer-facing sector, with some exposure to
currency swings, the macro environment will be critical to many stocks in 2009.
We have assumed that credit markets remain difficult, and even if companies
refinance, the next aim of many will be how to expedite a deleveraging of their
businesses. There are also indirect impacts of weak credit markets such as low
liquidity in underlying asset markets.
Earnings outlook for 2010 will influence any stock re-ratings
Whilst there are a number of stocks that “look” attractive on a multiple basis
across the European consumer space, we believe that these stocks won’t re-rate
in H1 2009 unless investors can be confident that 2009 represents a trough year.
This isn’t easy to identify, but we believe that TUI Travel (helped by merger
synergies), Whitbread (helped by domestic and international hotel expansion) and
Arriva (fuel price decline, plus European growth) should see increases in 2010.
We remain cautious on Carnival because we believe that the group will see profit
declines in 2010 resulting from a difficult booking environment in 2009.
Other leisure themes – flexibility, supply, govt. regulation and consolidation
This note also talks about the benefits of flexible cost structures given the
uncertainty over the macro environment, and discusses the potential
benefits/negatives from the supply environment in various industries over the next
few years. Finally we look at government regulation in leisure (which is likely to be
most relevant within gaming – potential negatives for land-based operators,
potential positives in online gaming) in 2009, and the outlook for consolidation.
Top picks, and least preferred leisure stocks
We have tended to be stock specific in our top picks, but believe that hotel asset
owners (hence Whitbread and Accor feature within our top picks) are oversold.
Our other top picks for leisure in 2009 are TUI Travel (earnings growth, attractive
valuation, various levers of growth), Arriva (stable cash generation, attractive
valuation, European growth potential) and Playtech (diversified play on structural
growth in online gaming). Our least preferred stocks include Sodexo (expensive,
not defensive, opaque), easyJet (needs to tame growth strategy, highly cyclical)
and JD Wetherspoon (expensive, financial gearing underestimated).
Risks to the sector include changes in the credit environment, as well as
changes in GDP outlook. Certain stocks such as hotels, caterers and cruise
lines are exposed to currency fluctuations. For a detailed discussion of
valuation and risks, please see pages 38-53.

Table of Contents
Top Picks and Least Preferred.......................................................... 3
Top Picks..................................................................................................................................3
Least preferred .........................................................................................................................3
The tempest of 2008.......................................................................... 4
A tough 2008 following a difficult H2 2007...............................................................................4
2009 economic outlook remains tough.....................................................................................6
Themes for 2009 ................................................................................ 7
Refinancing and optimal debt levels .........................................................................................7
The outlook for 2010? .............................................................................................................15
Flexibility versus inflexibility ....................................................................................................16
Government regulation ...........................................................................................................20
Supply can vary as well as demand ........................................................................................22
Focus on valuation methodology ............................................................................................26
Outlook for consolidation........................................................................................................30
Macro drivers of the sector ............................................................ 34
Currency exposure..................................................................................................................34
Oil price exposure ...................................................................................................................35
Key Picks for 2009............................................................................ 37
Whitbread ...............................................................................................................................38
Accor......................................................................................................................................40
TUI Travel ...............................................................................................................................42
Arriva......................................................................................................................................44
Playtech .................................................................................................................................46
Least preferred stocks..................................................................... 48
Sodexo...................................................................................................................................48
EasyJet ..................................................................................................................................50
JD Wetherspoon....................................................................................................................52

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