2009年全球电信行业展望

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Executive Summary 4
Performance Monitor 7
Valuation 8
Key Factors to Watch! 13
Refinancing is manageable for all operators 13
Turned emerging markets from chance to risk? 16
Are the dividends safe? 18
How will the guidance 2009 look? 19
Several attractive assets are available for sale 24
Investment Strategy 25
Downgrade for BT Group and Telecom Italia 25
Neutral for France Telecom, Swisscom and Telefonica reiterated 26
Deutsche Telekom, Telekom Austria and Vodafone remain our favorites 27
Company Overview 29
BT Group 30
Deutsche Telekom 36
France Telecom 42
KPN 48
Swisscom 54
Telecom Italia 60
Telefónica 66
Telekom Austria 72
Vodafone Group 78

GUIDANCE OUTLOOK 2009
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01/07 04/07 07/07 10/07 01/08 04/08 07/08 10/08 01/09
DJ ES Telecommunications DJ STOXX (rebased)
We believe that the main short-term drivers for the performance of
shares in the telecoms large-cap universe will be the deviation of
company guidance vs. market expectations as well as dividend
development. Industry specific topics like regulation, technological
changes or product development should only play an inferior role.
Assuming a gloomy outlook for the worldwide economy we believe
that Telecoms will remain relative winners in the stock market – at
least short term. We thus maintain our “overweight” rating for our
large-cap telecoms universe on the back of moderate valuations,
continuing FCF-growth at most operators and solid dividend-yields.
Sonia Rabussier, CEFA, MBA
Telephone +49 (0) 69/71 34 - 51 99
sonia.rabussier@oppenheim.de
Oppenheim Research GmbH, Frankfurt
Frank A. Rothauge, CFA, Dipl.-Kfm.
Telephone +49 (0) 69/71 34 - 52 06
frank.rothauge@oppenheim.de
Oppenheim Research GmbH Frankfurt
12 month high/low

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关键词：电信行业 Expectations performance Development expectation 行业 全球 展望 电信

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