发帖
雷达卡
China Insights & Strategy
Views from the Bund
China
Equities Research Team
Frank GongAC
(852) 2800 7006
frank.fx.gong@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
See page 120 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
Relative index performance
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
SH Comp MSCI China H share
Source: Datastream.
‘Views from the Bund’ is a monthly publication that gives clients a valueadded
view on China macro, strategy and industry insights.
• Key investment theme: We maintain our cautious view on MSCI China
for the near term despite the nearly 15% correction from the recent peak.
We believe the market needs a valuation cushion for what could be a bad
earnings announcements season in late Feb-Mar, given the fragile global
market environment and renewed high risk-aversion. MSCI China trades
at 9.8x FY09E P/E (based on our top-down view of a 5.6% FY09E EPS
decline) and 9.2x FY08 P/E. Trough 7x FY08 P/E was in October.
Valuations could look more attractive and defensive if the trailing FY08
P/E reverts to 8-9x, which could provide a better opportunity to re-build
positions in MSCI China in the long term. The economy has shown signs
of stability recently, and major leading indicators are moving in the right
direction, suggesting the stimuli might have started to work. De-stocking
could be close to an end but risks remain, in our view. We suggest
turning more positive on consumer discretionary as: (1) we believe
policy makers understand the importance of supporting discretionary
consumption to stimulate the economy; and (2) cheap valuations could be
a cushion for further downside. We like IPP and property as they are
most sensitive to the lower interest rates expected in 1H09. Policy
complacency and deflation expectation are key risks, in our view.
• What is changing: (1) We lower our 2009 full-year GDP growth
forecast to 7.2% (from 7.8%). (2) Potential decline in coal-fired orders
and new project rollouts.
• Information: We provide four investment themes (two positive catalysts
and two negative issues) for investors.
• Non-consensus calls: (1) Economic growth bottomed out in 4Q08 on a
Q/Q basis. (2) We turn more positive on consumer discretionary. (3) We
initiated coverage on DongFeng Motor with an Overweight rating.
• CMP adjustment: We add more exposure to consumer discretionary,
IPP stocks, and reduce weighting on financials, telecoms.
Table of Contents
Macro-economic views ............................................................3
Market strategy.......................................................................20
Autos .......................................................................................46
Consumer................................................................................65
Energy .....................................................................................69
Financials: Banks...................................................................72
Financials: Insurance.............................................................81
Real estate ..............................................................................98
Technology: Hardware.........................................................102
Telecom.................................................................................104
Utilities ..................................................................................108
289655.pdf
(1.3 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
admin 金币 +3 魅力 +20 奖励 2009-1-31 13:48:30
京公网安备 11010802022788号
