2009.2.2 JPM China Property Update

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• Primary sales during the last two weeks were as weak as 2008Chinese New Year: Based on various government real estate tradingcenters, average daily sales in the seven major cities slid 39% W/Wduring January 19-23, and dropped another 89% during the ChineseNew Year. Primary sales in Beijing and Tianjin could be distorted as thereal estate centers were closed until February 2. In most other cities,registrations were down 80-90% W/W, similar to the Chinese New Yearin 2008. In particular, sales in Shanghai were considerably below 2008levels and buyers were expecting a price correction of 10-15% across thecity.

• Buyers stayed on the sidelines: Although we expected a drop intransaction volume, the volume was still weaker than expected as buyershave stayed on the sidelines awaiting more price discounts to be offeredby developers after the festive season. Hence, a month may be needed forturnover to revive to December 2008 levels and, as such, we do notexpect newsflow to be positive ahead of the results season in March

.• Hopson scheduled new launches in Beijing: Hopson will launch itsWanjiang project in the 4th Ring, Beijing in mid-February atRmb10,800/sqm We estimate the development costs to reachRmb10,000/sqm so the margins for the initial launch could be razor-thin.That said, the timing of the launch could be good as Beijing relaxedhome-buying restrictions for foreigners on January 24. Previously,foreigners were restricted and could only buy one unit in Beijing andwould need to present their work permit to be entitled to buy a home.

• ICBC has not yet reset the borrowing rate of outstanding mortgages:According to Soufun, ICBC is the only bank among the big four stateownedbanks that has not reset the mortgage rates of housing loans fromFebruary 1. Borrowers are entitled to 0.7x of the PBOC benchmark rateinstead of 0.85x if they have an outstanding mortgage as of October 27,2008 and have a good credit record. However, ICBC has pushed back theimplementation date until detail guidelines are released.

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2009.2.2 JPM China Property Update
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