2009年捷克经济展望

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The Czech economy entered the recession in Q4 2008
The Czech small and open economy with a great part of manufacture of automobiles and
electrical equipment will be significantly hurt by the current crisis. We expect a deep drop in
Q4 08 GDP (-2.9% q/q). In year-on-year terms, GDP growth should decelerate from 4.2% in
Q3 08 to 0.0% in Q4 08. For the whole of 2008, we expect 3.4% GDP growth.
We might see a slight recovery in growth in the second half of 2009. It will all depend
especially on (1) when the situation stabilizes in the eurozone and (2) when, to what extent and
in what way the Czech fiscal support package will be implemented. In total, we believe that
the Czech economy should decrease this year 1.6% y/y and grow 1.9% y/y next year.
The trade balance should record a significant deterioration by more than CZK 50bn
this year. It should reach a surplus of only CZK 21bn, but in worse case we can’t exclude a
deficit. Deterioration in the foreign trade balance also negatively influences the current
account balance, which is already unfavorably affected by a deepening deficit in the income
balance.
The direction of inflation development in the nearest future is already clear. The y/y rate of
inflation will further decrease due to the effect of a high statistical base in January 2007, low
commodity prices, weak demand and due to the delayed effect of the strong Czech crown.
Inflation could decrease below 2.0% y/y in the upcoming months. The CNB’s inflation target
of 2.0% for 2010 is not in danger.
The CNB will have to revise its forecast for economic growth and inflation downward (at
least for the coming months). We assume the CNB will cut its key rate by 50bp at its
February meeting and the bottom will be at the level of 1.00%. The possibility that the
board will worry about the depreciating crown and not decrease their rates so significantly
represents the greatest risk.
Despite the fact that the Czech crown lost more than 20% since the middle of last
year, when the crown was the strongest at slightly below EUR/CZK 23.00, we are afraid
that the Czech currency will have the tendency to weaken further in the nearest one or
two quarters. The global financial crisis and recession start to show up in macroeconomic
picture of the Czech economy only from Q4 08 and the unfavorable situation will persist for
the first half of this year. Moreover, all emerging economies will face problems financing their
external and internal macroeconomic imbalances.
We believe that for the time being, growth and inflation remain in the process of slowing
down, and depression risks are still looming. Therefore, we expect IRS yields to decline
further. The original Finance Ministry’s Funding and Debt Management Strategy for 2009
looks too optimistic. This year's gross borrowing requirements may increase
substantially, which put CZGBs at risk to cheapen further against the swap.
The bearish equity market that we have witnessed in the past five months is likely to
continue for the most part of 2009. The economic slowdown is interconnected with the
weakening of CZK, which deters foreign investors further. The valuation of the Czech equity
market dropped significantly in recent months and it seems in line, if not slightly undervalued
in comparison with other markets. Shares of Telefonica O2 Czech Republic remain the most
attractive stock on the PSE, in our view, while we think that there is still some downside risk
for prices of energy-linked stocks. We expect no new issues on the PSE this year. We don’t
think any company would risk an IPO in the current volatile and pessimistic market.

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