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Gold: The Sum of all fears
Safe Haven Demand Lifts Gold
Purchases of physical gold have jumped over the past six months as investors’
fears about the current financial crisis and the possible outcomes from government
efforts to support banks and economies have intensified. We detail the different
reasons why investors are increasingly drawn to this safe haven asset.
Investment demand to double: Gold price forecast lifted to US$1,000/oz
We estimate that investment demand will double in 2009 compared to 2007 and
based on simple regression modelling we estimate that this will drive gold to an
average $1,000/oz in 2009, from US$700/oz previously. We expect this safe haven
buying to decline in 2010 and forecast gold will average US$900/oz that year.
Silver and Platinum forecasts also raised
We believe that higher gold prices will lift silver and platinum in sympathy and we
have made large upgrades to our forecasts. We now see silver averaging
US$14.75/oz in 2009 and $12.80/oz in 2010. Platinum very rarely trades at a
discount to gold and when it does, the discounts are short lived. We have lifted our
platinum price forecasts for 2009 only and now see $1050 in 2010.
Equities read-through
Precious metals remain preferred investments in a commodity context and we
expect that gold and platinum equities could continue to outperform. Our preferred
precious metals equities include: Impala Platinum (IMP SJ), Barrick Gold (ABX
US), and Goldcorp (GG US).
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