US Equity Research February 2, 2009<br/>US Exchanges Marketweight<br/>Analyst(s): Edward Ditmire, CFA <a href="mailto:Edward.Ditmire@fpk.com">Edward.Ditmire@fpk.com</a> 212-857-6176<br/>Preview: Mediocre 4Q08, Outlooks/Guidance More Important<br/>• 4Q08 results likely to moderate (principally due to seasonality) from an otherwise strong 2008. Our<br/>analysis shows the group somewhat under excellent 1Q08–3Q08 conditions, though improving slightly from<br/>relatively strong results last year. Revenues, expenses and operating profit for the composite group should<br/>grow at roughly 4% each, implying stable operating margins (47%) vs. the year-ago period. However, share<br/>performance for the group implies a much more cautious outlook, as the group composite fell -67% vs. -39% for<br/>the SP500 and -67% for the XLF during the past year.<br/>• Maintaining 4Q08 estimates for our US exchange group. We had previously trimmed estimates for CME<br/>Group (CME-$173.91-In Line) and NYSE Euronext (NYX-$22.00-Outperform) in our 2009 Outlook due mostly<br/>to inclusion of December metrics. NASDAQ OMX (NDAQ-$21.82-Outperform) and IntercontinentalExchange<br/>(ICE-$56.93-In Line) remain unchanged in this preview. Our estimates are flat to -3% below cons for 4Q08.<br/>• YoY volume mixed: up 63% for US equities, flattish for US options, and down -10% for futures. 4Q<br/>proved robust for US cash equity with 63% YoY industry growth, favoring NASDAQ (+62%) over NYSE (+45%)<br/>as a result of market share transfer. US options remained flat with a difficult comp in the year-ago-period.<br/>Futures declined -10% in the aggregate, as financial futures heavyweights CME saw declines in trading of -16%<br/>as interest rate futures dragged by -42%, while Euronext futures performed much better as more modest<br/>declines in rate futures trading (-7%) was more than offset by a 20% increase in equity index trading.<br/>• Pricing environment remains benign in futures, some slide in securities. In the 4Q08 period, we see futures<br/>rate per contract (RPC) up at CME (+9%) and at its recent acquisition NYMEX (+21%) due mostly to mix, while<br/>down slightly at ICE (-4%) and Euronext (-8%). On the US cash equities side, we anticipate a modest declines at<br/>NASDAQ (-4%), while NYSE (-26%) should decline YoY due to a move to become more competitive in 2H08.<br/>• Commentary to focus on OTC regulation, competition in Europe, 2009 guidance. The issues most likely<br/>to take center-stage on the call relate to clearing solutions for the OTC market (primarily for CDS, secondarily<br/>for commodities, interest rates, and FX), as well as competition in equities, particularly in Europe. Regarding<br/>OTC clearing, we see a wide range of possible outcomes as lawmakers investigate a series of sweeping<br/>changes to our financial framework. While some solutions could provide a material opportunity (OTC market<br/>averaged &gt;$4 bil. in daily turnover last year), economics are difficult to quantify until the project takes shape.<br/>2009 guidance should be particularly important for those companies reporting this quarter (CME, ICE and<br/>NASDAQ are likely to provide guidance, while NYSE Euronext remains more uncertain).<br/>• Similar to our 2009 Outlook, we have updated company exhibits to provide a useful walkthrough of<br/>profitability, revenue by source, and operating trends during the past 2-yrs vs. our expectations for 4Q.<p>TABLE OF CONTENTS<br/>4Q08 US Exchange Earnings Tear-Sheet ...................................................................4<br/>4Q08 US Exchange Performance Summary................................................................5<br/>Volume trends by company / product .......................................................................5<br/>Consolidated income statement ...............................................................................9<br/>CME Group (CME - $173.91 - In Line).......................................................................11<br/>IntercontinentalExchange (ICE - $56.93 – In Line).....................................................16<br/>NASDAQ OMX Group (NDAQ - $21.82 - Outperform)...............................................21<br/>NYSE Euronext (NYX - $22.00 - Outperform)............................................................28<br/>FPK US Market Structure Coverage Universe Table .................................................35</p><p></p><p>
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