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Update We expect positive short-term news flow near March NPC meeting
• Slow sales in January due to the Lunar New Year: As expected, primary sales in the seven major cities fell 30% M/M and 20% Y/Y due to lower sales during the Lunar New Year, which was in January this year. However, some companies, like Guangzhou R&F and China Vanke, reported good Y/Y growth in January sales, which indicates that big developers continue to gain market share. Supply, which is abundant in most cities, could take 7-26 months to clear due to the current slow sales. Beijing is the worst performer and Shanghai is the best performer.
• We cut our earnings estimates on six companies in January: We recently lowered our earnings estimates for major developers due to the development margin squeeze and slow property sales, which resulted in developers slowing down completions in FY08 and FY09. We cut our FY08/09 EPS forecasts by 32%/51% on average and NAV estimates by 24%. FY08E/09E net profit for the sector is set to grow only 8%/2%.
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• Demanding sector valuation after earnings estimate cuts and recent rally: The sector is trading at 14.5/13.8x FY08E/09E P/E, which is not attractive given the uncertain industry and company outlook. Our FY08/09 EPS forecasts are forecasts are on the downward trend. News flows should, however, be positive in the near term as the market expects more policy measures before or after the National People’s Congress meeting next month. Our top picks are CR Land (Dec-09 PT: HK$10.5; 15% upside potential), Hopson (Dec-09 PT: HK$6.0; 20% upside potential) and Guangzhou R&F (Dec-09 PT HK$10; 31% upside potential). Please see page 7 for PT valuation and risks.
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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-2-13 9:59:42编辑过]
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