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【出版时间及名称】：JPM-CHINA PROPERTY MONTHLY WRAP-SECTOR REBOUND TO CONTINUE WITH WANING POLICY RISK-100311
【作者】：jpmorgan
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
Physical market has slowed in 2M10: We recorded 41% M/M and 36%
Y/Y drop in volume sales in the eight cities we track in February due to
LNY holidays. For the first two months of 2010, cumulative sales were
flat (+1.4% Y/Y) overall though sales in 1st-tier cities were mostly down
but that in 2nd-tier cities were up. The government’s credit tightening
measures started to take effect to cool down the overheated market in 1sttier
cities. Also, secondary price growth has eased (or even retreated) in
Jan/Feb, edging down by 1.0-1.5% M/M in cities like Shenzhen, Beijing
and Guangzhou. We see this is as positive for the sector to alleviate
pressure for further tightening measures.
• Developers gaining market share: Developers continue to enjoy good
contracted sales in the first two months of the year, with growth of 30% -
300% Y/Y vs a flattish growth for the market. With more projects to be
launched, 20-30% contracted sales growth for listed developers is not
unachievable. With improved margins and strong property sales, earnings
outlook for the sector remains promising. Besides, NPC meeting gave no
negative surprises on policy directives which removed overhang on nearterm
policy risk.
• Rebound to continue and still not too late to buy: The sector has
corrected 25% for nine weeks which was shorter than 11 weeks in the
previous corrections when policy measures were introduced. Despite 17%
rebound from the recent low, valuation for the sector, especially that of
mid-caps is attractive. We prefer high-beta mid-cap stocks for
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