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G7 FX – Overnight Investors bought USD overnight against JPY and EUR with a combination of new longs and short covering of medium term positions. USDJPY gained over 2% and finally broke through resistance at 92.80 chewing through decent offers all the way up to end near the highs at 93.80. Initially EURUSD looked bid trading up to 1.2610 from 1.2560 with the market looking for a squeeze back to 1.2670 which never eventuated. Then large buying of USD’s across the board pushed EURUSD through overnight lows at 1.2550 triggering stops to trade down to the low 1.2513. Heading into Obama’s housing announcement, the market seemed to square up positions in EURUSD pushing it back to 1.2575, over the afternoon we eased back towards 1.2530 President Obama pledged a USD275bn program to cut mortgage payments for as many as 9 million homeowners; the plan would expand the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in curbing foreclosures. The Fed released its longer-term projections for inflation, economic growth a unemployment today: it expects GDP to contract by 0.5%-1.3 in 2009 with unemployment as high as 8.8% and inflation between 0.9%-1.1%. Bernanke’s speech made no mention of buying long-term treasuries. US housing starts were much weaker than expected at 466k vs. consensus 529k. AUD and NZD had limited price action with both trading in 50 pip ranges.
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