发帖
雷达卡
Record RMB2.8tn new loans in past 3
months cannot offset pain of rate cuts
Further reduce 2009e EPS 7-23% - more
rate cuts, less favourable loan mix,
rising liquidity, and higher credit costs
in a slowing economic outlook
We prefer BOC on valuation and ICBC
on balance sheet strength and less
impact from rate cuts
Loan growth is surging; asset mix is a near-term negative.
At first glance, monetary easing is working… capital is flowing
in terms of bank debt. But loan mix is a near-term threat with
c55% of recent loan growth as bills and short-term loans. These
loans are earnings accretive but far from enough to make up for
the negative impact of rate cuts.
Liquidity surge may be the source of a new threat. We
estimate RMB1.3tn in additional liquidity was added to the
banking system in 4Q08 through RRR cuts and c18% growth in
M2, putting greater pressure on investment yields. We forecast
another 350bps in RRR cuts in 2009 which could add
RMB1.7tn in lending liquidity if applied to all banks. Coupled
with persistently strong M2 growth, this new surge in liquidity
would force banks to lend and likely at low yields.
Profits turn more negative in 2009. We further reduce our
earnings forecasts by 10%, 14% and 14% for 2008e, 2009e and
2010e, respectively. Rate cuts (announced plus 108bps forecast
in 1H09), declining fee income and rising credit costs are the
key drivers. We now forecast an aggregate -11% yoy decline in
profits in 2009e; yet ROE ranges 12-18% in 2009e.
Trade on valuation gaps; Overweight BOC and ICBC as
relatively protected from full impacts of rate cuts. We
remain cautious as Chinese banks have become objects of
policy. H-share banks likely have similar opportunities in the
wake of the stimulus programme. Thus, significant
discount/premium on valuation multiple should create trading
opportunities. On a fundamental basis, we prefer BOC and
ICBC which are more protected from interest rate cuts due to,
respectively, a higher percentage of overseas loans and fixedyield
treasury assets.
目录
Can near-term negatives
provide opportunities? 6
Rate cuts bring unprecedented
challenges 10
Loan growth unlikely to be a
saviour 17
Credit costs not as dismal 23
Cut 08-10e EPS 10-14% 25
Index heavy weights… buffer
for share unlocks? 31
Company profiles 35
Bank of China (3988.HK) 37
Bank of Communications (3328.HK) 41
China Construction Bank (0939.HK) 45
China CITIC Bank (0998.HK) 49
China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) 53
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) 59
Disclosure appendix 62
Disclaimer 65
300689.pdf
(752.65 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
