摩根大通：中国钢铁行业研究报告2009年3月

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China steel sector
000898.SZ, 000898 CH
Downgrade to: Underweight
Previous: Neutral
Rmb7.93
Price Target: Rmb7.20
Steel not a steal 600808.SS, 600808 CH
Neutral
Rmb3.84
Price Target: Rmb4.10
China
Steel
Frank LiAC
(852) 2800-8511
frank.m.li@jpmorgan.com
Wenwen Wang
(852) 2800-8501
wenwen.x.wang@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
See page 49 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
• Assuming coverage of A shares: We assume coverage of China’s steel
A shares with a Neutral rating on Maanshan Iron and Steel – A
(Maanshan) (new Dec-09 PT = Rmb4.1, based on 1.2x FY09E P/BV vs.
historical avg. P/BV of 1.7x), and downgrade Angang Steel - A to UW
from N (new Dec-09 PT = Rmb7.2, based on 1.0x FY09E P/BV vs.
historical avg P/BV of 1.6x). Key risks to our view and PTs are an
earlier- and stronger-than-expected economic recovery, and effective
execution of the government’s measures to retire inefficient capacity.
• Downward adjustment in demand: After growing rapidly during
2001-07 (20% demand CAGR), the sector has begun a phase of
downward adjustment, with 2009 and 2010 crude steel demand growth
estimated at 2% and 4%, respectively. We expect neither a quick
turnaround nor a sustainable recovery in sales volume or prices before
2010, prompting us take a cautious stance on the sector.
• Main drags in our FY09 estimates: We expect: (1) real estate sector’s
crude steel demand to drop 10% Y/Y; (2) mechanical equipment sector’s
crude steel demand to drop 4% Y/Y due to a slowdown in exports of
mechanical and electrical goods; and (3) net exports of crude steel to fall
57% Y/Y due to currency devaluations in many of China’s steel trading
partners, rising protectionism, and global economic recession.
• We prefer Maanshan to Angang because: (1) over 50% of Maanshan’s
products are long products, which are expected to benefit from China’s
infrastructural spending boom, while for Angang, long products account
for less than 10% of total sales; (2) Angang’s new Payuanquan project in
Sep-08 coincided with the industry’s downturn; (3) Angang-A is trading
at an FY09E P/BV of 0.97x vs. Maanshan -A’s 1.13x.
• Corresponding H-share ratings and price targets: We rate Maanshan
Iron and Steel – H Neutral with a Dec-09 PT of HK$2.9 and Angang
Steel – H UW with a Dec-09 PT of HK$5.2. For our latest H-share note,
please see China Steel Sector: Reality versus policy, published on 5
March 2009.

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