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In this month’s overview titled The elusive silver lining, we are trying hard to look for the silver lining in
this financial crisis, but the evidence appears stacked against us for the moment. The stress in the US
financial sector has increased as reflected by HSBC’s Financial CDS sub-index, which hit a new record
of 3046 on 4 March (previous peak was 2598 in November 2008). There are a few things we would like
to see before we can be convinced of an end to this financial crisis. First, a credible stress test of the
financial system in the US and a roadmap to recapitalisation. The US government’s move to take a
significant stake in Citigroup addresses some of these concerns but not all of them. Second, we would
like to see greater coordination among developed countries in responding to issues of bank solvency,
balance-of-payments stress in Eastern Europe and rebalancing global savings/consumption patterns.
There is some talk to this effect but little action to-date.
On the other hand, we also see ways by which this crisis could get worse. Here, we have detected capital
outflows out of China, and our concern is that a self-fulfilling cycle of declining US Treasuries and
falling forex reserves in China could accelerate and be a destabilising force for the global economy. More
importantly, we think the markets are not positioned to handle disappointment from China. Against such
a backdrop, we are sticking with the same conservative strategy of focusing on the high-grade space.
Tactically, we think that central banks’ moves to purchase corporate bonds and securitised assets should
lead to the outperformance of the high-grade sector. In Asia, we like the Korean policy banks and the
Indonesian sovereign as outright value propositions.
In this month’s corporate overview, Asian corporates: Feeling the heat, we share our concerns
regarding the viability of Asian high-yield corporate issuers in 2009 and identify a short-list of credits to
watch in the coming months, including Berlian Laju Tanker, Chaoda Modern, China Properties, Neo-
China and Titan Petrochemicals. In the high-grade space, we discuss supply and ratings pressure as key
risks to the sector in 2009, but reiterate our view that the high-grade issuers generally pose limited default
risk. This month we also add Korea Railroad to our list of high-grade top picks.
In the credit strategy section entitled On separate paths, we studied the bid-offer spreads of different
classes of Asian credits. Average bid-offer spread of Asian credits has widened to 366bps from 49bps
nine months ago. Sustained narrowing in bid-offer spreads for sovereign and bank senior credits suggests
continued outperformance; while the recent sharp widening in subordinated bank debts' bid-offer spreads
points to further weakness.
Indonesia takes the limelight in this month’s sovereign section, as we make an attempt to see if there is a
balance of payments risk in the months ahead. Our analysis shows that the current account direction is
primarily a function of the trade balance. Closer analysis at exports and imports shows that imports will
fall faster than exports and hence, we see a significant widening of the merchandise trade surplus that will
more than compensate for modest deterioration in other components that make up the current account
balance. Put another way, we expect the Indonesian current account balance to flip into the black with a
surplus of 1.2% of GDP in 2009. If we are correct, then the country’s external accounts look healthy and
hence, fears of external financing problems are overstated.
Overview 3
Credit Research 24
Credit Strategy 31
Focus List 46
Sovereign Risk Analysis 55
Monthly focus: Republic of Indonesia 56
People’s Republic of China 80
Hong Kong SAR 82
Republic of India 87
Republic of Korea 89
Federation of Malayisa 95
Republic of Philippines 98
Company News & Analysis 101
Financial Institutions 102
Corporates 117
Asia Credits Coverage 151
Spread and Curve Charts 152
Appendix 157
HSBC Databank 158
Asian Yankee/Eurobond Secondary Trading Levels
as of 4/3/2009 176
Asian Rating Timeline 180
Disclosure appendix 186
Disclaimer 196
Contents
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