荷兰银行:澳大利亚造纸与包装行业研究报告2009年2月

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Paper and Packaging
Sector update - Feb 2009
AMC looks best placed given its superior financial position and the highly
cyclical characteristics of PPX and GNS. It is trading on a material PE premium to
both, but given the uncertainties facing paper markets and the attraction of a key
change in AMC’s growth strategy, we expect this to be maintained.
Table 1 : Key forecasts & recommendations
Reuters Year end Recom Price Target
price
Upside/
downside
EPS
1fcst
P/E
1fcst
Amcor AMC.AX Jun 2009 Hold A$5.30 A$5.20 -2% 0.45 11.9
Gunns GNS.AX Jun 2009 Hold A$0.75 A$0.80 7% 0.13 5.7
PaperlinX PPX.AX Jun 2009 Hold A$0.31 A$0.40 29% 0.03 10.2
Priced at close of business 12 February 2009.
1. Normalised EPS - pre non-recurring items and post preference dividends
Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts
Key industry and company news
The interims will highlight the tough trading outlook facing many of the sector's key markets,
particularly those that are paper industry-related. However, non-trading issues in the case of
AMC (Alcan Packaging discussions) and PPX (debt covenant breach negotiations) are likely
to capture much of the attention. The results are previewed on page 3.
Amcor – focus on expansion strategy the key catalyst
The share price has eased back ahead of the interims, as we expected. The multiple is now
looking far more manageable and post the interims we would expect the spotlight to return to
the potential benefits of acquisitive growth, which could provide additional support to the
share price. Expanding its growth strategy to include acquisitions is something we have long
advocated and confirmation that it is in discussions about acquiring parts of Alcan Packaging
are an important step forward, in our view. Either way, the timing looks favourable for AMC
whether it acquires parts of Alcan Packaging or other assets.
Gunns – Woodchip volumes under pressure
Despite the strong asset backing, near-term uncertainty about the woodchip market, given
the cyclical downturn in pulp and paper markets and the weak Japanese economy, could
continue to overshadow the share price. The 1H09 result should be relatively robust but
momentum in 2H09 looks to be slowing, a trend that may accelerate if the Japanese paper
companies are successful in clawing back some of the recent price rises (+43% since 2005).
We have reduced our target price from 90c to 80c to reflect this risk.
PaperlinX – forecasts cut materially again but debt the main issue
PPX is discounting a material drop in earnings on a P/B of only 0.1x. However, we see little
prospect of a sustained recovery until there is clarity on the current debt negotiations with the
group’s banks, even though we expect PPX will come to a mutually agreeable solution with
its lenders. We have cut our forecasts materially given the tough trading outlook, which may
also make it difficult for PPX to make up the absence of FY09F’s cA$20m of property profits
in FY10 (NPAT cut by 15% in FY09 and 40% in FY10). We reduce our target price from
A$0.65 to A$0.40.

Contents
Interim results preview 3
We preview the 1H09 results for Amcor, PaperlinX and Gunns. 3
Sector fundamentals 9
The industry data focuses mainly on those sectors most applicable to Amcor,
PaperlinX and Gunns.
9
Global packaging 9
PET bottles and jars 10
Beverage cans 13
Glass packaging 14
Flexible packaging 15
Tobacco packaging 18
Australian packaging 19
Resin prices 20
Paper and pulp 21
Paper merchanting 28
Company profiles 30
Amcor 30
Gunns 33
PaperlinX 36

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