摩根大通：欧洲中小上市公司 2009年3月

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

Pan-European Small/Mid-Caps
The SMid Trilogy — March 2009
Small/Mid-Cap Strategy
Eduardo LecubarriAC *
(44-20) 7325-1213
eduardo.lecubarri@jpmorgan.com
Mathieu P Bouthillier
(44-20) 7325-8867
mathieu.p.bouthillier@jpmorgan.com
Anders Bergman
(44-20) 7325-5346
anders.x.bergman@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
* Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/NASD rules
See page 265 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Figure 1: Pan-Europe Perf (Equal-Wtd)
YTD
Rank (1 = Best)
1M
Rank (1 = Best)
1W
Rank (1 = Best)
Broad Market Indices
MSCI Small Cap Europe -10.3 -6.5 -2.4
MSCI Europe -19.1 -12.0 -5.5
Russell 2000 -26.4 -18.2 -6.8
S&P 500 -22.4 -15.1 -5.7
JPM SMid Metrix (eq-wtd)
Pan-Europe by Sector -7.6 -5.9 -2.5
Energy -2.8 2 -2.2 1 -0.7 1
Materials -7.2 8 -6.0 8 -3.9 9
Industrials -12.0 10 -7.7 10 -3.0 8
Cons. Disc. -7.2 7 -5.2 6 -1.8 3
Cons. Staples -4.2 3 -4.6 3 -2.7 6
Financials -8.2 9 -6.5 9 -1.4 2
Healthcare -2.4 1 -5.0 5 -4.8 10
Technology -5.5 6 -4.6 4 -2.0 4
Telecom -4.6 4 -3.1 2 -2.7 5
Utilities -4.6 5 -5.2 7 -2.8 7
Pan-Europe by Region
Nordics -0.5 1 -3.1 2 -1.8 3
United Kingdom -4.0 2 -2.2 1 -1.0 2
Ireland -19.8 10 -19.6 10 -8.3 10
Germany+Austria -10.5 6 -6.1 5 -2.7 6
Benelux -7.3 4 -7.7 6 -2.2 4
Switzerland -13.1 8 -9.0 7 -4.6 8
France -6.4 3 -6.1 4 -2.5 5
Greece -10.5 5 -4.7 3 0.1 1
Italy -14.4 9 -10.7 9 -4.7 9
Iberia -12.2 7 -9.5 8 -3.9 7
Performance Breakdown (%)
Shaded = Best Perf
Source: Bloomberg, Factset, Datastream and J.P.
Morgan calculations
Note: Perf as of COB 02 Mar 2009
• A number of issues are likely to take the mkt lower in the very near
term: a) The macro-economic outlook remains dire, b) company results,
guidance, and visibility remains dismal, c) a new source of concern has
surfaced (goodwill writedowns and bankruptcies), and d) credit mkts have
taken another turn for the worse (iTraxx Crossover and Europe indices have
seen spreads narrow by 25 bps as both headed higher).
• But we reiterate our belief that SMid investors will see positive returns
from a 1H low. However, a lot of these issues are backward looking, and
we see a number of positive drivers laying ahead and likely to impact
equities in 2H09: a) Demand drivers are near hist. lows (ISM, and Cons.
Confidence), b) easing cost pressures (i.e. interest rates, commodities,
capacity utilization, and unit labor costs), c) easy 4Q09 YoY Comps, even if
conditions remain dire throughout the yr, e) valuations that are now at
historical lows — MSCI Europe excess yields stand at 12.8%, and f)
Estimates that are more realistic this time around — Yr+1 EPS Grw (IBES)
is today -2.7% for Pan-European SMid-Caps (vs 20.3% in Jan 08).
• On a Relative Return Basis: don’t be fooled by YTD outperformance —
Remain UW vs Credit and Large-Caps: SMid outperformed Large-Caps
last mth and YTD, but this is due to what we argued is a "liquidity trade"
(i.e. investors sell larger-cap, more liquid holdings in the later stages of a
down mkt to limit price impact). We find empirical evidence to support this
(wkly traded vols for SMid-Caps have fallen 21.5% YoY vs 8.9% for Large-
Caps). This will only delay the outperformance of SMid-Caps once the mkt
turns (historically SMid starts outperforming Large-Caps 2-3 mths following
a mkt low).
• At the Sector Level: Early to put on a full recovery trade so reiterate our
OW on Financials, Healthcare, and Tech; and our UW on Utilities and
Materials.
• At the Country Level: Our highest conviction recommendation remains
our UW on Spain (5th worst performer last mth, and 4th worst performer
YTD; of the 17 countries in our Pan-European universe). In addition, we
reiterate our UW recommendation on Switzerland (6th worst and 3rd worst
respectively), while we remain OW Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, and
Luxembourg.
• At the Stock Level: Given our believe that mkts could still trade lower in
the very near term, we reiterate our preference for stocks that a) limit risk
(i.e. net cash balance sheets, mkt leader positions, and trough valuations),
while providing early exposure to a recovery (i.e. exposure to the US).
Please refer to our note, published yesterday and titled “39 Mkt Leaders:
Adding RHK GR to the Radar as Inv Opp” for a list of such stock ideas.

Table of Contents
What Can You Find in This Report? .......................................3
The State of SMid-Caps ...........................................................6
Still a Mkt of Stocks ...................................................................................... 8
At the Sector Level: Focus on “Not Liked” .............................................. 18
At the Country Level: Remain UW Spain.................................................. 19
At the Stock Level: Opportunity Exists..................................................... 20
Country Screens.....................................................................22
Pan-Europe .................................................................................................. 24
Nordics ......................................................................................................... 44
United Kingdom........................................................................................... 64
Ireland........................................................................................................... 84
Germany+Austria ........................................................................................ 98
Benelux ...................................................................................................... 118
Switzerland ................................................................................................ 138
France......................................................................................................... 158
Greece ........................................................................................................ 178
Italy ............................................................................................................. 198
Iberia........................................................................................................... 218
JPM Pan-European SMid-Cap Coverage — By Country..................... 236
The SMid Frontier...............................................................................242
The Golden Geese..................................................................................... 243
The Halibut Stocks.................................................................................... 246
Sequoia Stocks.......................................................................................... 253
The Minters ................................................................................................ 257
The Roadsters............................................................................260
All prices and performance data are as of COB 02 Mar 2009, unless otherwise
stated.

304927.pdf (3.47 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)

2009-3-17 21:47:00 上传

摩根大通：欧洲中小上市公司 2009年3月
需要: 500 个论坛币  [购买]

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：上市公司 摩根大通 上市公 historically respectively 上市公司 important including research 摩根大通