德意志银行：美国证券市场上市公司盈利预测2009年3月

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North America United States
Industrials Multi-Industry
3 March 2009
4Q08 Earnings Compendium
In the eye of the storm
Nigel Coe, CFA
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250 7808
nigel.coe@db.com
Nicole Deblase
Research Associate
(212) 250 4525
nicole.deblase@db.com
US Capital Goods Earnings Compendium #4
In this compendium, we present detailed trends and outlooks for 13 of the key
verticals in the Multi-Industry group, which we believe to be important reference
points for Industrial investors. We also analyze organic revenue, FX, order, margin
and EPS dynamics for all stocks under coverage.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Top picks
United Technologies (UTX.N),USD40.83 Buy
Tyco International (TYC.N),USD20.05 Buy
Companies featured
Danaher (DHR.N),USD50.76 Hold
Dover (DOV.N),USD24.94 Hold
Emerson Electric (EMR.N),USD26.75 Hold
Eaton (ETN.N),USD36.15 Hold
General Electric (GE.N),USD8.51 Hold
Honeywell (HON.N),USD26.83 Buy
Hexcel (HXL.N),USD6.21 Hold
Ingersoll-Rand (IR.N),USD14.18 Buy
ITT Corporation (ITT.N),USD37.35 Hold
Kaydon Corporation (KDN.N),USD25.00 Hold
The Manitowoc Company (MTW.N),USD4.10 Hold
Parker-Hannifin (PH.N),USD33.37 Hold
Regal-Beloit Corp (RBC.N),USD28.68 Hold
Rockwell Automation (ROK.N),USD20.10 Hold
SPX Corporation (SPW.N),USD44.28 Hold
Stanley Works (SWK.N),USD26.76 Sell
Tyco International (TYC.N),USD20.05 Buy
United Technologies (UTX.N),USD40.83 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
The sector hit a brick-wall in 4Q08
After several years of steady growth, the industrial sector hit a brick wall last
quarter as customers stopping calling from November onwards. EPS declined
16% (4ppts better than DBe) as a 2-3% organic revenue decline was compounded
by 4ppts FX headwind and weak operating leverage: Segment margins declined
by 140bps as the residue of input cost inflation was joined by mid-single digit
volume declines. FCF conversion suffered as companies were wrong-footed by
demand conditions and this led to a modest inventory expansion.
Sharp deceleration for all industries ex-Power and Healthcare
Organic growth decelerated ~6ppts QoQ for the 13 key industries that we track,
with downward pressure across the board. However there was wide variation
with Power and T&D growing at 15%+, while Aero/Defense, Fire & Security, Flow
Control, Industrial Control, Electrical Distribution & Power Quality and Healthcare
posted low single-digit growth. HVAC & Refrigeration, Heavy Equipment, Tools &
Appliances, Electric Motors and Bearings are all now in negative territory.
Order data indicate that 1Q09 will be substantially worse
However order data indicate that not only will 1Q09 be substantially worse, but
that most industries will turn negative. We saw core bookings decline by 17% for
a cross-section of companies that report detailed order trends. Once again, longcycle
markets outperformed with Process and Power Generation stand-outs to the
upside; Construction Equipment and Truck-related businesses to the downside.
Is this the eye of the storm?
Clearly 1Q09 is being distorted by a number of factors including inventory
liquidations, taut credit markets and high levels of restructuring. However these
factors may persist for some time and 2008 backlogs are still providing some
element of protection. Therefore with median EPS down as much as 40% YoY in
1Q09 – indeed IR and ETN expect to lose money – the implied rebound in 2H09
(as embedded in FY09 guidance down 20-30%) may be too bullish. The good
news is that with the sector priced at just 9x EPS, the market is already
embedding 35-40% further downside to consensus numbers.
Remain underweight: We believe UTX, TYC, HON and IR can outperform
At this stage, we prefer companies with a high mix of recurring revenues and
below-average operating leverage; in this regard, our top-picks are UTX and TYC.
We also like the deep value in HON where management has front-loaded
restructuring that should cap earnings downside. We are also buyers of IR given
that B/S risks appear to be over-stated and since the stock is priced at a trough
multiple on an earnings base that is approaching trough levels. We value
Industrials at 4-9x LTM EBITDA; Risks: global recession, rising protectionism,
normalization of multiples, global rebound – see p.3 for further details.

Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Summary tables................................................................................. 4
Key industry trends ........................................................................... 5
Key company trends........................................................................ 19
Danaher ............................................................................................ 29
Dover ................................................................................................ 37
Eaton................................................................................................. 45
Emerson Electric.............................................................................. 53
General Electric................................................................................ 61
Hexcel ............................................................................................... 73
Honeywell ........................................................................................ 81
Ingersoll-Rand.................................................................................. 89
ITT Corporation................................................................................ 97
Kaydon Corporation ...................................................................... 105
The Manitowoc Company............................................................. 115
Parker-Hannifin .............................................................................. 123
Regal-Beloit Corp........................................................................... 133
Rockwell Automation.................................................................... 141
SPX Corporation ............................................................................ 149
Stanley Works................................................................................ 157
Tyco International.......................................................................... 165
United Technologies ..................................................................... 173

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