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Oil Market REBOOT
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
The Three Step Program
Exhibit 1: Global Spare Crude Oil Capacity
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009E
2011E
Headline spare capacity as % of demand
Effective Spare Capacity as % of demand
Source: Credit Suisse
■
We revisit our Reboot thesis and find it still makes sense, but it will
likely take longer to operate than previously thought.
■
The oil market needs a Three Step Program to get the Reboot process back
on track. The Three Steps are
1. Stabilize Demand
2. Work off the Inventory Pile
3. Fear Depletion
■
Once we are through this Three Step Program crude oil is likely to reset
itself at higher price levels. We see WTI prices at $50/bbl in 2009, then
$60/bbl in 2010 and $70/bbl in 2011.
■
However, the permanent impairment of global oil demand in the recession,
plus lower upstream costs, plus lower medium term oil demand growth,
suggest the world will need less high cost oil by 2016 than we thought.
■
We lower our long-term oil price forecast to $70/bbl, from $100.
■
Big Oil will struggle to keep the reinvestment wheel turning at $70/bbl we
think and some players will need to change strategy (for more details see
our companion report today entitled The Reality of Higher Oil Prices).
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