发帖
雷达卡
ASEAN Aces
Our picks for high-quality holdings for today's
environment
ASEAN market strategy
Sriyan PieterszAC
(662) 684 2670
sriyan.pietersz@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited
Christopher Gee
(65) 6882-2345
christopher.ka.gee@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private
Limited
Chris Oh, CFA
(60-3) 2270-4728
chris.ch.oh@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.
(18146-X)
Aditya Srinath, CFA
(62-21) 5291-8573
aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com
PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia
Kelly Lim-Bate
(63-2) 878-1188
kelly.s.lim-bate@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.
Adrian Mowat
(852) 2800-8599
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
See page 43 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
• Our preferred stocks on four criteria: Our analysts have surveyed
their coverage and chosen 19 large-cap stocks in ASEAN that fit four
criteria. These criteria make the stocks our preferred choices and, in our
view, relatively safe to own – now and for the long haul. We see these as
attractively valued large-capitalization franchise stocks, with defensive
balance sheet characteristics, but also well positioned to grow in an
eventual upturn.
• Criterion #1: Company positioning in the market: The company’s
‘franchise’ – collectively its management, product, pricing power and
market share – makes it stand out above peers and positions it to benefit
from current market dislocations as competitors are undermined. An
intact business model allows it to withstand current economic and
financial market distress.
• Criterion #2: Financial strength: The company’s balance sheet, cash
flow, liquidity, leverage, and dividend cover are secure and outstanding
among peers. There are no near-term funding issues.
• Criterion #3: Valuation: While not necessarily the lowest P/E, the
stock is cheap, either relative to intrinsic value, peers, or historical
multiples. Share liquidity is also adequate.
• Criterion #4: Low shock risk, actionable now: There is low risk of a
negative price shock and no more than a single-digit hit likely to FY09E
EPS estimates. There may even be positive catalysts to drive stock
outperformance in the current negative economic environment.
• Names that came close: These names satisfied most but not all
criteria—Starhub and Olam (rising competition, ST debt), Resorts World
and Telekom Malaysia (weak capital management, valuation), Ayala
Corp and SM Prime(earnings risk, valuation), KBANK and SCC (shock
risk, high gearing), Semen Gresik and BCA (event risk, valuation).
ASEAN Aces – Potential winners and
near-misses
Singapore
We have identified four stocks in our Singapore universe that meet the characteristics
of franchise strength relative to peers, robust balance sheet, dividend attractiveness,
and low shock potential. These are A-REIT, City Developments, DBS, and
Singapore Exchange. Individual notes on each of these four stocks setting out the
investment case are included in this report.
Other stocks in Singapore that meet most but not all of the characteristics are Starhub
and SingTel; while relatively well held today for their defensive characteristics, we
are concerned about the prospect of increased pay-TV competition emerging in 2H09
for Starhub on the back of the bidding for the English Premier League rights, and
about continued weakness in SingTel’s regional exposure, especially in India. The
other stocks on our “9-for-’09” top pick list, such as Olam International, Ascendas
India Trust, and CapitaRetail China Trust, were strong candidates for inclusion in
this category, save for the fact that while we are comfortable in the longer run about
their funding and capital structure, the market is focused more on the foreign
currency exposure in the case of AIT and CRCT and on the group’s reliance on
short-term debt finance in the case of Olam.
Malaysia
In our Malaysian universe, BAT Malaysia, Berjaya Sports Toto, YTL Power, Digi,
and Plus are our ASEAN Aces picks given their relatively stable revenue and
earnings outlook (due to their solid business franchise), coupled with balance sheet
strength and high dividend stability. We also foresee limited downside negative
surprises given management’s high level of corporate governance and the nature of
their businesses. We have incorporated a summary investment case for each of the
companies highlighted above in this report.
Companies that missed the cut include: 1) Resorts World, which has one of the most
enviable businesses (monopolistic casino operator) with a cash rich balance sheet but
raises questions about efficient capital management and corporate governance; 2)
Telekom Malaysia, which has a stable cash generative business in the fixed-line
operations, but its valuations – while reasonable – are not compelling, in our view;
and 3) Tanjong, which has sustainable cash flows from the gaming and power
operations, while management is committed to being capital efficient; however,
power operations are in “exotic” emerging markets which fail the test of low shock
potential.
Philippines
Among our Philippine coverage, we have identified PLDT as having met the
characteristic of franchise strength relative to peers, robust balance sheet, dividend
attractiveness, and low shock potential.
Other stocks in the Philippines that meet most but not all of the characteristics are
Globe, due to its lower liquidity level than PLDT, and Ayala Corp, due to its
holdings in Ayala Land, which we believe could still see earnings disappointment in
1H09 from its exposure to the weakening high-end residential sector. We also like
SM Prime and Bank of the Philippine Islands. However, due to their management
strength and relatively conservative/defensive business models, valuations are still
trading near historical averages. We would pick up these stocks at lower levels.
Thailand
Our picks for Thailand’s Aces are Advanced Info Services, BEC World, CP All,
PTTEP, Siam Commercial Bank, and Thai Oil. The most compelling among these, in
our view, is Thai Oil, one of the region’s most complex refiners, which is trading at
the bottom of its historical range at just 0.7x book value. Low gearing, high dividend
coverage (10% + yield), and forecast 2009 ROE of 23% are allied with low shock
risk given depressed oil price levels.
Some large-cap stocks that fulfilled most but not all of the criteria were KBANK
(potential shock risk of SME-related NPLs), Siam Cement (high gearing of 1.5x),
and PTT (medium net gearing of 0.5x, weak FCF coverage of dividend).
Indonesia
We identify three stocks in Indonesia that we believe offer the combination of
franchise strength (relative to peers), a robust balance sheet, and reasonable
valuations. These are Astra International, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and PT Telkom.
Each of these companies has a commanding competitive position in a market where
there remains long-term growth potential, and at this time valuations look decidedly
reasonable. We believe that investors willing to look beyond current quarters to the
potential in Indonesian growth would be rewarded. While near-term risks are
probably more prevalent than anywhere else in our Southeast Asian universe, there is
low risk of a negative price shock and no more than a single-digit hit likely to FY09
EPS estimates, in our view. In Astra’s case, near-term prospects for the auto business
remain unclear; for Bank Rakyat, the asset quality cycle is still moving adversely
(although we believe provisions are adequate); while PT Telkom carries
diversification risks.
Two stocks within our universe that satisfy most but not all of the characteristics we
were looking for were Semen Gresik and Bank Central Asia. Semen Gresik has a
strong market share, and a healthy balance sheet. However, we see risks to cash flow
from its planned $2B expansion capex surge, while weak demand increases the
possibility of a price war at mid-year. Bank Central Asia has a strong deposit
franchise, which gives it a uniquely liquid balance sheet. However, despite a recent
decline, valuations at over 2x FY09E P/BV are still at a significant premium to its
domestic and regional peer group.
307763.pdf
(533.92 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
