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Refining margins continue to fall
Refining margins potentially past peak for 2009
The Reuters complex refining margin index fell to an average of US$5.2/bbl last
week, down from an average of US$8.1/bbl the previous week and about half the
levels of late January. Weak Asia demand and closing arbitrage opportunities to
Europe led diesel and kerosene spreads versus Dubai crude oil down to just US$5-
7/bbl by the end of last week. Naphtha crack spreads have narrowed amid slowing
demand from Korea and China petrochemical manufacturers.
Oil prices up for the week
Brent and WTI both closed at US$45/bbl on 27 February, up 9.1% and 13.5%,
respectively, on a WoW basis. This was mostly due to evidence that OPEC supply
cuts were taking hold, and of modest YoY demand growth for gasoline in the US
in the past weeks. However, the rally was moderated by news that the US economy
shrank 6.2%, compared with the consensus forecast of 5.4%, in Q408.
E&P stocks have outperformed in the past month
In the month ending 27 February and based on simple average performance, E&P
stocks in Asia under UBS coverage were up 6.2%. This compares with an average
rise of 1.7% and 2.9% for integrated stocks and refining stocks, respectively.
We expect Sinopec to outperform
We continue to expect Sinopec to outperform its peers in China in the near term.
Sinopec’s share price has largely underperformed relative to CNOOC and
PetroChina. We also believe the downside risks for 2009 consensus EPS estimates
at CNOOC and PetroChina are higher than for Sinopec.
Contents page
Weekly indicators 3
Quarterly indicators 4
UBS forecasts 5
UBS forecast tracker 6
Crude oil price & spread 7
Refining margins & spreads 9
Refinery throughput 10
US oil product inventory 11
Japan oil product inventory 12
Singapore oil product inventory 13
Petrochemical prices and spreads 14
Recent oil & chemical reports 17
Valuations: Oil & Chemicals 18
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