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英文文献：Food Security In Brazil: Can "Lula" Keep His Promise?-巴西的粮食安全:“卢拉”能遵守他的承诺吗?拥有1.7亿多人口的巴西，已经走上了消除饥饿和贫困的道路
英文文献作者：Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager,Rosen, Stacey L.
英文文献摘要：
Brazil, a country with a population of more than 170 million, has embarked on a path to eradicate hunger and poverty. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (commonly known as "Lula") declared as his goal to cut the number of hungry people to zero during his presidency. Poverty and hunger afflict a large proportion of the population in part because of highly skewed income distribution. The poorest income quintile (20 percent of the population) owned 2.2 percent of the national income while the richest quintile owned about two-thirds in 1998. Using USDA/ERS food security models, we measure food availability and access, calculate the number of hungry people, and estimate income growth required to eradicate food insecurity. According to the ERS food security assessment (FSA) model, between 20 and 40 percent of Brazil's population-roughly 50 million people-do not have sufficient incomes to purchase the amount of food necessary to fulfill nutritional requirements. However, by 2007, increases in food production and GDP are projected to raise food availability by 13 percent. This will help decrease the share of hungry people to between 15 and 20 percent of the population. Basic nutritional adequacy is considered in another method used by ERS to estimate food security. This approach employs a food purchasing power threshold (FPPT) to account for prices of food items and balanced coverage of main food groups. This approach measures food insecurity by calculating the cost of a healthy food basket and the cost of other basic necessities. This FPPT can then be compared to income. Food security results from this approach are similar to those from the FSA model. Both models indicate that income growth required to raise consumption in the vulnerable income groups and eradicate hunger far surpass historical growth rates. Therefore, targeted government programs seem to be a promising but costly option to meet the zero-hunger goal. Lula's program is a mix of cash transfers and investment (e.g., education). While the link between improvements in education and poverty reduction is clear, the road to success is likely to take more than the 4 years envisioned by President Lula.
巴西总统路易斯?伊纳西奥?卢拉?达席尔瓦(Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva，人们通常称其为“卢拉”)宣布，在其总统任期内，他的目标是将饥饿人口数量减至零。贫困和饥饿困扰着很大一部分人口，部分原因是收入分配高度倾斜。1998年，最贫穷的五分之一人口(占总人口的20%)拥有国民收入的2.2%，而最富有的五分之一人口拥有大约三分之二的国民收入。利用美国农业部/ERS的粮食安全模型，我们衡量了粮食供应和获取，计算了饥饿人口的数量，并估计了消除粮食不安全所需的收入增长。根据ERS的粮食安全评估(FSA)模型，20%至40%的巴西人口——大约5000万人——没有足够的收入购买满足营养需求所需的粮食。然而，到2007年，粮食产量和国内生产总值的增长预计将使粮食供应增加13%。这将有助于将饥饿人口的比例减少到人口的15%到20%。ERS用于评估粮食安全的另一种方法是考虑基本的营养充分性。这种方法采用了食品购买力阈值(FPPT)来计算食品项目的价格和主要食品组的平衡覆盖范围。这种方法通过计算健康食品篮子的成本和其他基本必需品的成本来衡量粮食不安全。这个FPPT可以与收入进行比较。这种方法得出的食品安全结果与FSA模型得出的结果相似。两种模型都表明，提高弱势收入群体的消费和消除饥饿所需的收入增长远远超过了历史增长率。因此，有针对性的政府计划似乎是一个有希望但昂贵的选择，以实现零饥饿的目标。卢拉的计划是现金转移支付和投资(如教育)的混合。尽管改善教育和减贫之间的联系很明显，但通往成功的道路可能比卢拉总统设想的4年还要漫长。
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